Imvamisa ekhulayo yezenzakalo zemvelo ezidlulele kanye nomthelela lokhu okuba nawo emiphakathini nasezinhlelweni zemvelo kuye kwaholela ekuthuthukisweni kwamamodeli ayisixwayiso akhula ngokunemba kakhulu futhi azenzakalelayo. Muva nje, kokubili ucwaningo lwamazwe ngamazwe kanye namaphrojekthi aseYurophu atshala imali ekusetshenzisweni kobuhlakani bokwenziwa kanye nezinzwa ezikude ukuze kwakhe amasistimu angagcini nje ngokubona izingozi kodwa futhi alindele imiphumela yawo ngesikhathi esanele sokwenza izinqumo eziphumelelayo futhi asindise izimpilo.
I-Los amamodeli ayisixwayiso sakuqala Ziyasungulwa njengethuluzi eliyinhloko lokunciphisa umonakalo kanye nokwandisa izinsiza lapho kubhekene nokuzamazama komhlaba, ukusha kwehlathi, izinambuzane, nokuncipha kwamahlathi. Ngenxa yokusetshenziswa kobuchwepheshe obusha, lezi zinhlelo azisekho kuphela ekukhipheni izexwayiso ezivamile, kodwa manje sezihlanganisa idatha yesikhathi sangempela, izithombe zesathelayithi, amarekhodi okuphila, nezinzwa ezisatshalaliswa kuyo yonke indawo.
Isixwayiso sangaphambi kwesikhathi sokuzamazama komhlaba sibonga ubuhlakani bokwenziwa
Enye yentuthuko ephawuleka kakhulu ivela emsebenzini ohlanganyelwe phakathi kwamanyuvesi aseChile naseBritish, asebenzise isisekelo sohlelo. imodeli yokubikezela ukuqina kokuzamazama komhlaba Ngokusekelwe kubuhlakani bokwenziwa. Ithuthukiswe abacwaningi baseNyuvesi yaseLos Andes, iNyuvesi yaseChile, kanye neNyuvesi yase-Exeter, lolu hlelo luyakwazi ukubikezela ubukhulu obulindelekile bokuzamazama komhlaba kuze kufike kumasekhondi angu-30 noma angu-40 ngaphambi kokuba kube nomphumela omkhulu, umkhawulo ongenza umehluko lapho ukhipha izakhiwo ezisengozini noma ukumisa izinqubo eziyingozi zezimboni.
Uhlelo, oluqanjwe HEWFERS (I-Hybrid Earthquake Early Warning Framework for Estimating Response Spectra) isebenzisa amasu okufunda omshini athuthukisiwe ukuze ihlaziye imizuzwana embalwa yokuqala erekhodwe eziteshini ze-accelerographic. Ngalolu lwazi, iyakwazi ukulinganisa hhayi indawo ethintekile kuphela kodwa futhi nokucindezeleka kwangempela izakhiwo nezinye izingqalasizinda ezizobhekana nazo. Lokhu kunikeza ukuvikelwa komphakathi kanye nezikhulu eziphuthumayo ngesisekelo esiqinile sokunquma ukuthi yiziphi izinyathelo okufanele zithathwe esimweni ngasinye.
Lesi sinyathelo siphakamisa ukuqaliswa kwaso okusabalele esikhathini esizayo emazweni anomsebenzi wokuzamazama komhlaba ophezulu, njenge-Chile, esebenzisa inethiwekhi ekhona yeziteshi e-National Seismological Center. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuqinisekiswa kusetshenziswa idatha evela ekuzamazameni komhlaba kwangempela—njengalokho okwenzeke e-Japan—kubonisa amandla ako okuzivumelanisa nezinye izimo zokuzamazama komhlaba zamazwe ngamazwe.
Ukuvikelwa kwamahlathi kaphayini ne-oki kusetshenziswa amamodeli azenzakalelayo
Emkhakheni wamahlathi, futhi, umqondo wokuxwayisa kusenesikhathi uyakhula. Iphrojekthi yaseYurophu NYATHELA, eholwa yi-Institute of Sustainable Agriculture ye-CSIC, ihlose ukuthuthukisa uhlelo olukwazi ukuhlonza amahlathi asengozini yokufa, ikakhulukazi amahlathi kaphayini nama-oki endaweni yaseMedithera. Lobu buchwepheshe bugxile ku- ukutholakala kusenesikhathi kwezinambuzane nezifo, kusetshenziswa izinzwa zerimothi ezishisayo nokuhlaziya okuguquguqukayo kokuphila ukuze kutholwe izimpawu zokuqala zokuwohloka kwezihlahla.
Ngokusho kwabaphenyi, ukutholwa kusenesikhathi kubalulekile ukusebenzisa amahlathi anembayo kanye nokunciphisa imithelela yezomnotho neyemvelo yokwehla kwamahlathi. I-TREAD isekelwa iNyuvesi yaseCórdoba kanye nesikhungo samaPutukezi i-CoLAB ForestWISE, ngaphezu kokusekelwa yi-European Forest Institute, egcizelela ukubaluleka kwayo kwamanye amazwe.
Ngaphandle kokuqoqwa kwedatha, iphrojekthi ihlose ukwakhiwa kwe isizindalwazi esivulekile nesibukeli esiku-inthanethi evumela ukuthi ulwazi lwabiwe phakathi kososayensi, abaphathi bamahlathi, nezikhulu zikahulumeni. Umqondo uwukukala imodeli kuzo zonke izinhlobo zemvelo, ukuhlanganisa izinhlobo ezintsha zezilwane kanye nokulungisa impendulo ezinselele ezishintshayo zesimo sezulu.
Izinselelo namathuba amamodeli amasha aqagelayo
Ukusetshenziswa kwamamodeli ayisixwayiso sokuqala ibeka izinselelo zesayensi nezobuchwepheshePhakathi kwazo, ubunzima bokuqonda kanye nokwenza imodeli yezinguquko zomzimba ezitshalweni ezingaphansi kwengcindezi kanye nesidingo sokushintsha ama-algorithms kuzimo eziguquguqukayo zemvelo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amasistimu obuhlakani bokwenziwa kufanele alinganiswe ngokuqhubekayo ukuze kugwenywe ukuchema futhi kuthuthukiswe ukunemba kwawo, ikakhulukazi ezimeni lapho idatha etholakalayo ingase ibe nomkhawulo noma ihlukaniswe.
Naphezu kwalobu bunzima, ukuthambekela kucacile: ukuhlanganiswa kokuhlaziya okubikezelwayo kanye nobuchwepheshe bedatha enkulu Ekulawulweni kobungozi, kuguqula indlela esibhekana ngayo nezimo eziphuthumayo. Ngokukhula, lawa mathuluzi asivumela ukuthi silindele ubukhulu benhlekelele obungaba khona ngemizuzwana, senze impendulo esheshayo futhi eqondiswe kakhulu.
Ukuthuthukiswa kwamamodeli ayisixwayiso okuqala kokubili ukuzamazama komhlaba nempilo yamahlathi, ibonisa ukubaluleka kokubambisana kwamazwe ngamazwe kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali ocwaningweni olusetshenziswayoAmasistimu athuthukile asevele avivinywa e-Europe naseLatin America amele igxathu eliya phambili ekuvikeleni ingqalasizinda ebalulekile, imvelo yemvelo, kanye nemiphakathi esengozini ezingozini ezivame ukwanda nezingalindelekile.
