Isibikezelo sezulu siyashintsha kakhulu. inikwa amandla ubuhlakani bokwenziwa, obuthembisa ukucatshangelwa kabusha indlela izinto ezimbi njengeziphepho, izivunguvungu, nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kungazelelwe. Amasistimu amasha okuhlola akhulisa ikhono lokubikezela ama-trajectories, ukuqina, kanye nezimo ngesikhathi esisodwa imininingwane engakaze ibonwe kanye nokulindela kuze kube manje
Eminyakeni yamuva, Ukusebenzisana phakathi kwezikhungo zesayensi nezobuchwepheshe kuholele ekuthuthukisweni okuphawulekayo ekuthuthukisweni kwamamodeli wesimo sezulu. Izinkundla eziqanjiwe, njenge-Google's Weather Lab, sezivele zivuma qhathanisa ngokuhlanganyela ukubikezela amamodeli ahlukene angokwenyama nahlakaniphile futhi ufinyelele ngisho neminyaka engaphezu kwemibili yedatha yomlando ukuze ihlaziywe futhi iqinisekiswe.
Ukufika kobuhlakani bokwenziwa: izinselele ezintsha namathuba
Ukuthunyelwa kwe- amamodeli esimo sezulu asuselwe kubuhlakani bokwenziwa Iyakhula ngesivinini. I-European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, i-Google DeepMind, i-California Institute of Technology, ne-Huawei, phakathi kwezinye, sezivele zinawo amamodeli asebenzayo noma ahlolwayo, njenge-AIFS, i-GraphCast, i-FourCast, ne-Pangu-Weather. Zigqama ngokushesha, ukunemba kanye nokunciphisa izindleko zokubala. uma kuqhathaniswa namamodeli angokwenyama kuphela, okuvula umnyango wezibikezelo ezithengekayo nezinemininingwane.
Umkhawulo oyinhloko wale modeli ungaphakathi ukuncika kwabo kudatha yomlando abaqeqeshwe ngayoUma kwenzeka izehlakalo ezimbi kakhulu ezingakaze zibonwe ngaphambili, ubuhlakani bokwenziwa bungahluleka ukulindela imiphumela noma ubukhulu, njengoba bubona amaphethini wangaphambilini kodwa buntula isisekelo sokukhiqiza izimo ezintsha ngokuphelele. Lokhu kuyimbangela yokukhathazeka esimweni sokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, esivuna izehlakalo ezingajwayelekile.
Ilebhu Yesimo Sezulu: Ukuzibophezela kwe-Google ekubikezelweni okuthuthukile nokuhlanganyelwayo
Isiteji Ilebhu Yesimo Sezulu, esanda kwethulwa, ivumela noma imuphi umsebenzisi qhathanisa izibikezelo ezivela kumamodeli wesimo sezulu sakudala, njengalawo avela ECMWF, ngalezo ezikhiqizwe ubuhlakani bokwenziwa, ikakhulukazi imodeli yayo ethile yokuhlola yezishingishane zasezindaweni ezishisayo. Ngokusekelwe kumanethiwekhi e-stochastic neural, le sistimu yakha izimo ezifika kwezingama-50 ezahlukene umzila, ukuqina kanye nobukhulu beziphepho kuze kufike ezinsukwini eziyi-15 kusengaphambili, okumelele eqa qualitative uma kuqhathaniswa nalokho okunganikezwa yi-meteorology kuze kube manje.
Ezivivinyweni zakamuva, Imodeli ye-AI ibonise ukuthuthuka okungafika ku-140 km ekubikezeleni amathrekhi wesiphepho izinsuku ezinhlanu. Uma kuqhathaniswa namamodeli ajwayelekile omhlaba, lokhu kuhumusha ngaphezu kosuku nohhafu esixwayisweni. Iziphathimandla e-U.S. National Hurricane Centre sezivele zisebenzisa leli thuluzi ukuze zisekele ukuhlaziya kwazo kwesizini yesiphepho, nakuba i-Google igcizelela ukuthi uhlelo lusesigabeni sokuhlola futhi akufanele luthathe indawo yemithombo esemthethweni.
Esinye isici esibalulekile ukuthi Weather Lab ivula idatha yakho yomlando ukuze kube lula lokho ososayensi, izazi zezulu kanye nabasebenzisi abathuthukile abakwazi landa ulwazi kanye neqhaza ekuthuthukisweni kwayo ngokukhuthaza ukubambisana kwamazwe ngamazwe ocwaningweni nasekuthathweni kwezinqumo lapho kubhekene nezimo zesimo sezulu esibi.
Imikhawulo nezinselelo ze-AI kumamodeli wesimo sezulu
Nakuba amamodeli e-intelligence yokwenziwa Zimelela intuthuko enkulu kakhulu ekubikezelweni kwesimo sezulu ezikhathini zamuva nje., basabhekene nezinselele ezinkulu. Ubunzima obukhulu busekubikezeleni izenzakalo ezintsha ngokuphelele, njengoba befunda ezibonelweni ezedlule. Uma idatha yemicimbi ethile eyeqisayo isuswa kumasethi okuqeqesha, amamodeli e-AI Balahlekelwa ikhono lokulindela lezi zenzakalo uma zenzeka futhi emhlabeni wangempela.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amamodeli endabuko aqonda futhi axazulule izibalo ezibonakalayo ezilawula umkhathi, enikeza izinga lokuqonda kanye nokwengeza amasistimu we-AI ahlanzekile asantula. Ithrendi yesikhathi esizayo ikhomba ukuhlanganiswa kwazo zombili izindlela, ukuhlanganisa ukuqina kwefiziksi nokusebenza kahle kobuhlakani bokwenziwa. Abanye ochwepheshe batusa ukufakwa kwemithetho yemvelo kumanethiwekhi emizwa ukuze kuzuzwe amamodeli ayingxube angabhekana kangcono nezinselele zomkhathi. "grey swans", izenzakalo zezulu ezingakaze zibonwe ngaphambili kodwa kungenzeka ngokwesayensi yemvelo.
Ukuhlangana kwesimo sezulu nesimo sezulu
Muva nje, iziyalo ezimbili ngokwesiko ezihlukene ziyahlangana: isimo sezulu nesimo sezulu. Imodeli I-ICON, eyathuthukiswa i-Max Planck Institute for Meteorology kanye ne-Deutscher Wetterdienst, phakathi kokunye, iyingqalabutho ekuhlanganiseni izibalo zokubikezela isimo sezulu kanye nokuqagela kwesimo sezulu sesikhathi eside, ngenxa yesakhiwo sayo esiyimojuli kanye nekhono lokuhlanganisa izingxenye zomkhathi nezolwandle.
Lokhu kwenza ukulingisa komhlaba wonke okunokulungiswa okuphezulu kuhlaziye kokubili izenzakalo zesikhathi esifushane kanye nezinqubo zokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, kunikeze umbono ohlangene futhi onembe kakhudlwana. Ukusetshenziswa okuhlanganisiwe kwedatha namamodeli kusiza ukuhlola ukuthi i-ocean eddies noma izehlakalo ezimbi kakhulu zisithinta kanjani isimo sezulu nesimo sezulu, ukuvala igebe phakathi kwale mikhakha emibili.
Ezinye izinhlelo zokusebenza ezisebenzayo kanye nemibono
Manje sekungenzeka ukubonana nezibikezelo ezikhiqizwe amamodeli avela e-United States, Europe, Germany naseCanada (GFS, ECMWF, ICON kanye neGEM), ethanda ukuhlaziywa okuqhathanisayo nokwenziwa kwezinqumo emikhakheni efana nezokuphepha zomphakathi, ezolimo, umshwalense kanye nezimakethe zezimali, lapho kulindelwe khona. izenzakalo zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu kubalulekile.
Nakuba ubuchwepheshe buthuthuka ngokushesha, kubalulekile ukugcina isimo sengqondo sokugxeka nokuqaphela mayelana namamodeli amasha. Izinkundla ezintsha kakhulu zihlala zingamathuluzi ophenyo, futhi kuyancomeka ukuqhubeka nokubonisana nemithombo kazwelonke kanye nezimiso ezisemthethweni uma kwenzeka kuba nezixwayiso noma izimo eziphuthumayo.
Ukuthuthukiswa kwalawa mamodeli kuya kuhlanganisa amandla obuhlakani bokwenziwa nokuthembeka kokuhlangenwe nakho kanye nezisekelo ezibonakalayo zomkhathi. Lokhu kuhlanganiswa kunika amandla inqubekelaphambili eqonde ekubikezelweni kwesimo sezulu nesimo sezulu esinembe kakhudlwana nesiqondakalayo, ukuthuthukisa ukuvimbela ubungozi kanye nokwandisa ukufinyelela ku-meteorology ethuthukisiwe kubantu uwonke kanye nezinhlelo zokusebenza ezihlukahlukene zobungcweti.
