La ukuhlukaniswa kwe-polar vortex Kuphinde kube yindawo ebalulekile empikiswaneni yesimo sezulu ekupheleni kobusika kanye nasekupheleni kwentwasahlobo. Okwenzeka amashumi amakhilomitha ngaphezu komhlaba e-stratosphere akuyona into encane: kungathinta isimo sezulu amasonto amaningi eNyakatho Nenkabazwe, okuhlanganisa IYurophu kanye neNhlonhlo yase-Iberia.
Kulokhu, amamodeli amakhulu ezinombolo kanye nezinhlangano zokubhekisela zikhomba isimo lapho i-stratospheric polar vortex ikhombisa khona buthaka kakhulu futhi buthambekele ekuqhekekeniLokhu kuguquguquka kuvula ithuba lokuqubuka komoya obandayo sekwephuzile kanye nezikhathi ezingavamile ezithambile, kanye nokuqala kwentwasahlobo okungaba nokuphazamiseka okukhulu.
Iyini i-polar vortex futhi kungani ingaqhekeka?
I-polar vortex, ngomqondo obanzi, i- ukujikeleza okukhulu kwemimoya ebandayo kakhulu ehlelwe eduze kwesigxobo, ikakhulukazi ebonakala enyakatho yezwe ngesikhathi sasebusika. Itholakala e- i-stratosphere, cishe phakathi kwamakhilomitha angu-16 no-48 ukuphakama, futhi isebenza njengohlobo “lodonga” olusiza ukuvimba umoya wase-Arctic ezindaweni eziphakeme.
Uma i-polar vortex iqinile, incane, futhi igxile kahle e-ArcticUmoya obandayo uvame ukuhlala eduze kwe-pole, futhi izindawo eziphakathi nendawo zaseYurophu, eNyakatho Melika, nase-Asia zivame ukuba nobusika obuzinzile. Kodwa-ke, uma lesi sivikelo sibuthakathaka noma siphazamiseka, siyaphuka, futhi umoya obandayo ungakhuphukela eningizimu ngokuqubuka okukhulu.
Enye yezinhlobo ezimbi kakhulu zokuphazamiseka kwe-vortex yilokho okubizwa ngokuthi ukuhlukaniswa kube yi-nuclei ezimbiliUma kunjalo, isakhiwo esiyindilinga siyayeka ukuba yisilinganiso futhi sihlukaniswe sibe yizikhungo ezimbili ezinkulu ezibandayo, ezingaya emazwekazini afana neNyakatho Melika noma i-Eurasia, okushintsha amaphethini okujikeleza komoya okukhulu.
Lolu hlobo lokuhlukana luvame ukuhlotshaniswa nesenzakalo esaziwa ngokuthi ukufudumala kwe-stratospheric ngokuzumayo (SSW), lapho izinga lokushisa le-stratospheric lingakhuphuka ngokushesha okukhulu, ngisho nangaphezulu kwama-25°C ezinsukwini ezimbalwa. Lokhu kukhula okungazelelwe kubuyisela emuva imimoya ekhona, kunciphisa umoya, futhi kwenze kube lula ukuthi uqhekeke noma uqhekeke.
Ubusika obune-polar vortex ebuthaka kakhulu
Ngesikhathi sasebusika sesimo sezulu, i-stratospheric polar vortex ibonise ukuziphatha okungajwayelekile futhi okungazinzile kakhuluEsikhundleni sokuhlala siqinile futhi sicacile amasonto amaningi, njengoba kwenzeka ebusika obuningi, sichithe ingxenye enkulu yesizini siseduze nokuwa.
Ukuhlaziywa kusikisela ukuthi, ezigabeni ezahlukene, i-vortex isongela ukuthola kabusha isakhiwo esiqine kakhudlwanakodwa ngaphandle kokuthola amandla okuqinisana ngendlela eqhubekayo. Lobu buthakathaka obuhlala isikhathi eside abuvamile futhi buthande, ezindaweni eziningana zenyakatho yezwe, izigameko zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu, ezishintshana phakathi kwamagagasi abandayo kanye nezikhathi ezithambile ngokumangazayo.
Empeleni, i-vortex ebuthakathaka kangaka isho ukuthi umkhathi uba sengozini enkulu izinguquko ezisheshayo kuphethiniIsimo sezulu esivumela amazinga okushisa angaphezu kwavamile njengamanje singaphenduka ezinsukwini ezimbalwa sibe ubhubhane olukhulu lwamakhaza, into esivele ibonwe kulobu busika ezindaweni ezahlukene enyakatho ye-United States kanye nezingxenye zeYurophu.
Lo mongo wobuthakathaka obuqhubekayo uyisihluthulelo sokuqonda ukuthi kungani ochwepheshe beqapha ngokucophelela ukuvela kwe-stratosphere Ngibheke phambili emasontweni azayo, njengoba nje ikhalenda liphawula ukuphela kobusika kanye nokuqala kwentwasahlobo yesimo sezulu.
Ukuhlukaniswa kwe-polar vortex ngokwemodeli ye-GFS ne-ECMWF
Amamodeli amakhulu okubikezela ngezinombolo, kufaka phakathi aseMelika I-GFS kanye neYurophu ECMWFBayavumelana ekuchazeni ukuvela kwe-polar vortex eba yinto ephawulekayo njengoba izinsuku zokugcina zikaFebhuwari kanye nezinsuku zokuqala zikaMashi zisondela.
Kumamephu omoya emazingeni aphezulu e-stratosphere (cishe ama-hPa ayi-10), isakhiwo esisasiyindilingaNakuba ishintshile kancane futhi ine-radius encane kunokujwayelekile ngalesi sikhathi sonyaka, lelo nani liqala ukuguquka kancane kancane.
Ngokusho kwemiphumela yemodeli ye-GFS, i-vortex ivame ukwenza kusukela e-Eurasia kuya eCanadaukwamukela isimo eside nesingafani kahle. Lokhu kwelula kuvame ukuba yisandulela sokuqhekeka okukhulu kwesistimu.
Ingxenye ebaluleke ngempela iza ezinsukwini zokuqala zentwasahlobo yesimo sezulu, lapho izibalo zisikisela ukuthi i-stratospheric polar vortex ingakwazi ukuhlukana nokuhlukana ngokucacile kube ama-nuclei amabili ahlukeneLokhu kungaba ukunyakaza okumangalisayo kakhulu ekushintsheni kwe-stratosphere, okuqinisa umqondo wokuphela kwesizini okungeyona into evamile.
Lesi simo sokuhlukaniswa sisho ukuthi izikhungo ezibandayo ziyathutha, zihlele kabusha ukusatshalaliswa kwengcindezi kanye nendlela yomzila ukusakaza kwejetLokhu kulungiswa kabusha, yize kwenzeka ezindaweni eziphakeme, kugcina kuthinta ukujikeleza komkhathi ezingeni lobuso ngemva kwesikhathi esithile.
Lokhu kuhlukaniswa kuthinta kanjani isikhathi saseSpain naseYurophu?
Umbuzo omkhulu ukuthi konke lokhu kuhamba kwe-stratosphere kuhumusha kanjani esikhathini esingaqoshwa ku- ISpain kanye neYurophu yonke emavikini azayo. Impendulo ayiyona esheshayo futhi ayiqondile, kodwa izibalo kanye nokuhlangenwe nakho kusenza sikwazi ukuthola iziphetho ezinengqondo.
Lapho i-polar vortex buthakathaka futhi buwohlokeLokhu kwandisa amathuba okuba umoya obandayo kakhulu udlulele ezindaweni eziphakathi. Endabeni yaseYurophu, lokhu kungasho ukuqubuka komoya obandayo okufinyelela enkabeni yezwekazi, futhi ngezinye izikhathi, eNhlonhlweni yase-Iberia, ikakhulukazi uma kuhanjiswa eNtshonalanga Yurophu.
Kodwa-ke, ukuhlukana kwe-vortex akusho ukuthi ngaso sonke isikhathi kubange ukuwohloka okuqondile kweSpain. Kuncike kakhulu... lapho ngqo khona ama-cold cores amabiliukuthi ukucindezeleka okuphezulu kuphinde kusatshalaliswe kanjani nokuthi umfula i-jet stream uthatha siphi isimo phezu kwe-Atlantic kanye nezwekazi laseYurophu.
Amaphethini avame kakhulu kulezi zinhlobo zezimo afaka, ngakolunye uhlangothi, izikhathi ezine- amazinga okushisa angaphezu kwesilinganiso Ezindaweni ezithile, lokhu kwenza kube lula ukungena komoya ofudumele ovela e-Atlantic, futhi, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kungenzeka ukuthi, ngemva kwalesi sigaba esithambile, kuzokwenzeka ushintsho endleleni bese kufika umoya obandayo ovela ezindaweni eziphakeme.
ESpain, le nhlanganisela ivame ukuguquguquka kakhulu kunesimo sezulu esivamile sasentwasahlobo, kanye ukushintshana okuphawulekayo kweziqephu ezithambile nezibandayokanye nezinguquko ezisheshayo ohlelweni lwemvula kuye ngokuthi ukugeleza kwe-Atlantic, kwezwekazi noma kwe-Mediterranean kubusa yini.
Izimpawu ze-vortex ephazamiseke kakhulu emasontweni azayo
Ulwazi olutholakalayo lubonisa ukuthi, kude nokululama, i-stratospheric polar vortex izoqhubeka ukubonakala ekhathazekile futhi ebuthakathaka phakathi nesikhathi esisele sasebusika kanye nezigaba zokuqala zentwasahlobo.
Amagrafu okuvela kwamandla omoya ahlotshaniswa ne-vortex, asekelwe kumodeli ECMWFZibonisa ukuthi isilinganiso sokuqina esibikezelwe sihlala kanjani ngaphansi kwezindinganiso zesimo sezulu kulesi sikhathi sonyaka. Izimo ezahlukene ezivezwe yimodeli, ezimelelwe njengohlu lwezibikezelo, zonke ziyavumelana ngalokhu kuziphatha okubuthakathaka kunokuvamile.
Lokhu kuphikelela ngamanani aphansi kuyisibonakaliso esicacile sokuthi umoya ophezulu uzohlala usesimweni zizwela kakhulu eziphazamiso ezintshaNgamanye amazwi, izinguquko zephethini zingenzeka kalula uma ukuguquguquka okuthile ekujikelezeni kwegazi okujwayelekile kuqiniswa.
Ngokombono wokubikezela kwesizini, lesi simo siphakamisa intwasahlobo ene izinga eliphezulu lokuguquguquka: ukuhlasela komoya obandayo okungenzeka sekwephuzile, isikhathi eside kunezikhathi ezivamile zokufudumala kanye nokushintshashintsha kwamaphethini emvula, into ebaluleke kakhulu ekuqapheni isomiso ezindaweni ezahlukene zaseYurophu.
Kuyafaneleka ukugcizelela ukuthi, nakuba amamodeli enikeza izinkomba eziwusizo, impendulo ye-troposphere—ungqimba lapho isimo sezulu esisibona khona ebusweni sithuthuka khona—ekuphazanyisweni kwe-stratosphere kungaba ziyahlukahluka kakhulu futhi azihlali ziqondileYingakho izinsizakalo zesimo sezulu zigcizelela isidingo sokuqapha okuqhubekayo kokubuyekezwa kwemodeli.
Imiphumela ewusizo ekuqaleni kwentwasahlobo
Ngaphandle kwesithakazelo sesayensi kuphela, ukuhlukaniswa kwe-polar vortex kuye imiphumela ephathekayo okungabonakala emikhakheni efana nezolimo, ezokuthutha, ukuphathwa kwemithombo yamanzi noma ukuhlela amandla eYurophu.
Emkhakheni wezolimo, iphethini ye-vortex ebuthakathaka yandisa ingozi isithwathwa sekwephuzile Ngemva kwezinkathi zesimo sezulu esithambile, kuvela isimo esibucayi kakhulu uma izitshalo zikhula ngaphambi kwesikhathi ngenxa yeziqephu zokushisa okungavamile ngasekupheleni kobusika noma ekuqaleni kwentwasahlobo. Ukubuya komoya obandayo ngokuzumayo kungalimaza amahlumela nezitshalo ngesikhathi sezigaba ezibucayi.
Kwezokuthutha kanye nengqalasizinda, iphethini yethrafikhi eguquguqukayo neguquguqukayo ivame ukuhlotshaniswa ne- amathuba aphezulu eziphepho umoya, izigameko zemvula enkulu noma iqhwa elikhithikayo ezindaweni zezintaba, izinto ezingenza kube nzima ukuhamba kanye nokugcinwa kwezinsizakalo ezibalulekile.
Emkhakheni wamandla, lokhu kuguquguquka kokushisa kuhunyushwa ku- ukuguquguquka kwesidingo sokushisa kanye, ngezinga elincane, ukupholisa, okudinga ukulungisa izibikezelo zokusetshenziswa kanye nokuba nemingcele yokuphepha ekuphathweni kwamanethiwekhi kanye nezindawo ezigciniwe.
Ngenxa yazo zonke lezi zizathu, izinhlangano zezulu zaseYurophu zivame ukunaka kakhulu izigameko zokufudumala kwe-stratosphere okungazelelwe kanye nokuhlukana okungenzeka kwe-vortex, okuhlanganisa lolu lwazi kuzo. izibikezelo zesikhathi esiphakathi neside ukubikezela izimo eziyingozi.
Sekukonke, isimo samanje se-polar vortex ebuthakathaka kakhulu, okungenzeka ihlukaniswe ibe yi-nuclei ezimbili ezihlukile, sibeka ukuqala kwentwasahlobo yesimo sezulu esimweni esingazinzile ngokusobala, lapho Izinguquko zephethini zingashesha futhi zifinyelele kudeUkuqapha ngokuseduze ukuvela kwamamodeli kanye nezixwayiso ezisemthethweni kuzoba yisihluthulelo sokuhumusha ukuthi iyiphi ingxenye yalawo mandla eyenzeka eSpain nakwamanye amazwe aseYurophu emasontweni azayo.