Eminyakeni yamuva, Ukubikezela isimo sezulu kube noguquko lwangempela ngenxa yokuthuthukiswa kwamamodeli amasha esayensi ahlanganisa ubuhlakani bokwenziwa.I-European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ithathe isinyathelo esiqinile ngokufika kwe AIFS ENS, isistimu ye-innovative probabilistic echaza kabusha indlela izibikezelo zesimo sezulu ezikhiqizwa futhi kulawulwa ngayo.
Ithini imodeli entsha ye-probabilistic?
I-AIFS ENS v1 iyimodeli ehlanganisiwe esebenzisa amasu okufunda ngomshini ukulingisa ukuziphatha komkhathi nokukhiqiza izibikezelo zesimo sezulu ngombono obanzi wezimo ezingaba khona zesikhathi esizayo. Lolu hlelo lwenza ukulingisa okuningi kusukela esimweni sokuqala esifanayo, isampula yokusabalalisa okufundiwe, okuyinto ivumela ukuthwebula ukungaqiniseki okukhona ekubikezelweni kwesimo sezulu.
Ngenxa yale ndlela, izibikezelo ziyafezeka enembe kakhudlwana futhi engokoqoboImodeli isebenzisa umsebenzi wokulahlekelwa we-CRPS, osiza ukulinganisa imiphumela, kucatshangelwa imikhawulo ehambisana nokusebenza ngenani elilinganiselwe lamalungu enhlangano. Ngenxa yalokho, I-AIFS ENS isebenze kahle kakhulu kunamamodeli enhlanganisela yendabuko engokomzimba ekubikezelweni kwebanga elimaphakathi futhi iyaqhudelana kakhulu nezibikezelo ezingaphansi kwesizini..
Umehluko omkhulu ngokuphathelene namamodeli wendabuko
Enye yezimpawu ezibaluleke kakhulu ze- AIFS ENS Yindlela ehlanganisa ngayo ilungu lokulawula. Ngenkathi kumamodeli asuselwa ku-physics yendabuko, leli lungu lisebenza njengereferensi enqumayo, engaphazamiseki, kumodeli esekwe ku-AI, le ndima ihlukile. Ilungu lokulawula le-AIFS ENS liwumkhiqizo wesampula yangaphakathi yokusabalalisa okufundwe uhlelo., okusho ukuthi ukungaqiniseki akukwazi ukuvalwa ukuze kuqalise ukulingisa okufana ncamashi nesikimu sakudala.
Lokhu okuqanjwa kabusha kumelela inqubekelaphambili emandleni lindela izimo zezulu eziyinkimbinkimbi futhi uhlole ubungozi obuhlobene ngokucabangela ukuhlukahluka kwemvelo komkhathi ekubikezelweni. Uma ufuna ukujula ngokuthi amamodeli wesimo sezulu asebenza kanjani, ungabonisana amanye amamodeli wesimo sezulu kanye nokubaluleka kwayo ekubikezelweni kwesimo sezulu.
Ukuziphendukela kwemvelo kanye nokulandelana kwezikhathi kokuqaliswa
Imodeli idlule esigabeni sokuhlola lapho izindlela ezahlukene zahlolwa khona, njengesu lokusabalalisa, nakuba inguqulo yokusebenza igxile ngokukhethekile ekuthuthukisweni ngomsebenzi wokulahlekelwa kwe-CRPS. Ukufakwa kwe-AIFS ENS ezinhlelweni zokubikezela ze-ECMWF kuhlelelwe umhlaka-1 Julayi 2025 ngo-06 UTC., kulandela isigaba sokuhlola esaqala ngoJuni 23.
Okwamanje, abasebenzisi bamanye amamodeli afana ne-IFS ne-AIFS Single ngeke bahlangabezane nanoma yiziphi izinguquko, njengoba izinguqulo zokusebenza zalezi zinhlelo zihlala zinjalo.
Umthelela nezincomo zabasebenzisi
Ukufika kwe-AIFS ENS kumaka ngaphambi nangemuva kwe ukulawula ukungaqiniseki kwesimo sezulu kanye nokunemba kwesibikezelo. Nokho, labo abahlose ukusebenzisa le datha, ikakhulukazi ngezinjongo zokusebenza, kufanele babuyekeze ngokucophelela ulwazi olutholakalayo ngezindaba ezaziwayo nezisalindile. I-ECMWF iphinde ikhuthaze umphakathi wesayensi nobuchwepheshe ukuthi unikeze impendulo ukuze kuthuthukiswe uhlelo.
I-AIFS ENS ayihloselwe ukushintsha amamodeli endabuko ngokushesha, kodwa kunalokho igcwalisa uhla lwamathuluzi atholakalayo okubikezela isimo sezulu ngezindlela ezithuthuke kakhulu ezivumelaniswe nenkathi yokufunda komshini. Ukuze uqonde kangcono ukuvela kwalawa mamodeli, kungase kuthakazelise ukubuyekeza.
Ukuthuthukiswa nokusebenzisa amamodeli afana ne-AIFS ENS kuvula isiteji esisha sokubikezela isimo sezulu, ukuthuthukisa ukulindela kanye namandla okulawula ubungozi Kumongo womhlaba lapho imicimbi eyeqisayo izuza khona ukuvelela, ukuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo kwalawa mathuluzi kuthembisa izibikezelo eziwusizo kakhulu kubasebenzisi abangochwepheshe kanye nomphakathi jikelele.
