Kukhona cishe Izinsuku eziyikhulu ngaphambi kokuqala kwesizini yeziphepho e-Atlantic Futhi izinsizakalo zesimo sezulu seziqala ukuchaza ukuthi lo mjikelezo omusha ungase uziphathe kanjani. Ukuhlaziywa kokuqala kukhomba umsebenzi. cishe isilinganisoKodwa ngezici eziningi ezihlukile: ukuhlanganiswa kwesimo se-El Niño kanye nesimo sokushisa kolwandle kuveza izinga lokungaqiniseki okungafanele linganakwa.
Ongoti bayakuvuma lokho Akwanele ukubheka nje umhla lu-1 kuNhlangulana ekhalendeniEminyakeni yamuva nje, iziphepho eziningana Zakhiwa ngaphambi kokuqala okusemthethweni.Lokhu kudinga ukuhlala uqaphile phezu kwe-Atlantic, iCaribbean, kanye neGulf of Mexico kusukela ekupheleni kwentwasahlobo kuqhubeke. Kubantu abavezwe obala, okuhlanganisa nalabo abasogwini lwe-European Atlantic, isihluthulelo ukuqala ukulungiselela kusenesikhathi, ngaphandle kokulinda isexwayiso sokuqala.
Ikhalenda elisemthethweni nezindawo eziqashwe yiwo
La Isizini yeziphepho zase-Atlantic ka-2026 Kuhlelelwe phakathi kukaJuni 1 noNovemba 30, isikhathi lapho iningi leziphepho zasezindaweni ezishisayo liqala khona Ulwandle i-Atlantic, uLwandle iCaribbean kanye neGulf of MexicoNokho, ngokombono wokusebenza, izikhungo zesimo sezulu sezivele zisebenze isigaba sokuqapha esiqinisiwe lapho izinhlelo zamacala zivela ngaphambi kwalolo suku.
EYurophu, ukugxila kakhulu ku- isigodi sase-Atlantic esempumalangalapho iziphepho zakha noma zishintsha ngezikhathi ezithile, okungathonya I-Iberian Peninsula, iziQhingi zaseCanary noma ama-AzoresNakuba iningi lomthelela oqondile ligxile eMelika, ukujikeleza komoya kungathwala umswakama kanye nemfucumfucu kusuka kulezi zinhlelo kuya eNtshonalanga Yurophu, okuholela iziqephu zemvula enkulu kanye nemimoya evamile ezindaweni ezishisayo.
Izazi zezulu zigcizelela ukuthi izindawo zokuqapha ezibalulekile Isifunda saseCaribbean sihlala siyi- IGulf of mexico kanye nentshonalanga ye-Atlantic, njengoba zivame ukufika kuqala kwezidumile. I-27,5 ºC (80 ºF) phezu komhlaba, kubhekwe njengomkhawulo omncane kakhulu wesiphepho sasezindaweni ezishisayo okufanele sikhule futhi sihleleke.
Ngenxa yalesi sizathu, ezinye izinsizakalo eziphuthumayo eYurophu naseSpain seziqala ukuhlanganiswa nezinqubo zazo ze- Ulwazi mayelana neziphepho zase-Atlantic ezikudenjengoba izinsalela zazo noma ukuguquka kwangaphandle kwezindawo ezishisayo kungafika ezinsukwini kamuva njengeziphepho ezinamandla ngendlela engavamile.
Indima ka-El Niño kanye namazinga okushisa olwandle
Esinye sezici ezibhekwe kakhulu okwamanje ukuvela okungenzeka kwe- I-El NiñoAmamodeli esimo sezulu asikisela ukuthi lesi simo singaba isebenza njengesithiyo esiyingxenye yomsebenzi we-cyclonic E-Atlantic, i-El Niño ivame ukudala imimoya ephezulu engavumeli ukwakheka kweziphepho. Ngokomlando, iminyaka elawulwa yi-El Niño ivame ukubona iziphepho ezincane noma ezincane kakhulu kulesi sigodi.
Noma kunjalo, ukuthwebula izithombe zasolwandle kwenza kube nzima ukubikezela. Ezindaweni ezinkulu zase-Atlantic, Amazinga okushisa olwandle ahlala engaphezu kwesilinganisoNakuba kuqukethe okuningi kunalokho okwakunjalo ngezinsuku ezifanayo ngo-2025, lokhu kushisa olwandle okweqile kunguphethiloli otholakalayo, uma kuhambisana nezimo zomkhathi ezinhle, ongakhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa iziphepho zasezindaweni ezishisayo ezihlelekile kakhulu.
El IGulf of mexico Ivelele njengenye yezindawo eziphazamisa kakhulu. Ingxenye yamanzi ayo ikhombisa isimo sangempela “iphakethe elifudumele” elinamadigri amaningana ngaphezu kokujwayelekileNgaphandle kwenhlonhlo yaseFlorida, eye yapholiswa okwesikhashana yizimo zasebusika ezilandelanayo. Ochwepheshe manje baqapha ukuthi isimo sezulu sizoziphatha kanjani. izimbali ezibandayo zasentwasahloboUma behluleka ukucisha lokho kushisa, amathuba okuba kwenzeke imisebenzi yasezindaweni ezishisayo kusenesikhathi azokwanda.
Kulesi simo, izinsizakalo zokubikezela zaseYurophu naseNyakatho Melika zixhumanisa idatha yesathelayithi, ama-ocean buoy, kanye namamodeli ezinombolo ukuze kuhlolwe izinga U-El Niño uzokwazi ukubuyisa ukushisa okweqile okuqongelelwe olwandleImpendulo yalowo mbuzo izonquma ukuthi isizini ihlala isondelene nesilinganiso noma ithambekele emsebenzini omkhulu.
ESpain nakwamanye amazwe aseYurophu, ukuqonda leli bhalansi akusizi nje kuphela ngenxa yezinhlelo eziwela i-Atlantic, kodwa futhi ngoba iphethini ehlotshaniswa ne-El Niño ingashintsha ukujikeleza okujwayelekile komkhathi, okushintsha kancane ukusabalala kweziphepho kanye nezikhathi zesomiso ngesikhathi sasekwindla.
Umsebenzi wesikhathi esingaphandle kwesizini: iqiniso elivame ukwanda
Omunye wemiyalezo evame ukuphinda izazi zezulu ukuthi Imvelo ayiqondi amakhalendaEminyakeni yamuva nje, kuye kwaqoshwa iziqephu eziningana zomsebenzi wasezindaweni ezishisayo. ngaphambi kukaJuni 1Lokhu kuqinisa umqondo wokuthi ukuqapha kufanele kwandiswe cishe unyaka wonke.
Phakathi kwezibonelo ezibaluleke kakhulu ukubonakala kwayo ku- Januwari 2023 wesiphepho esingashiwongo igama, eyafika ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ngaphambi kokuqala okusemthethweni. Ngawo lowo nyaka, isiphepho sokuqala esibizwa ngokuthi i-tropical, U-ArleneNgeke kufike kuze kube uJuni, kodwa isixwayiso sokuthi kungaba khona izimanga zakuqala sase sisetafuleni.
Uhlu lwezibonelo luhlanganisa nezinhlelo ezifana U-Ana (2021) y U-Arthur noBertha (2020), ezakhiwa ngaphambi kukaJuni futhi zalayishwa imvula enkulu eningizimu-mpumalanga ye-United StatesLezi zigameko ziqinisa isidingo sokuthi izinhlelo eziphuthumayo zisebenze ngisho nangoMeyi, lapho isizini ingakaqali ngokombono.
Elinye icala eliphawuleka kakhulu yileli lika Isiphepho u-Alex sika-2016okwafinyelela amandla eziphepho empumalanga ye-Atlantic maphakathi noJanuwari kwaze kwafika Ama-Azores njengesiphepho sasezindaweni ezishisayoIzimo ezinjengalezi zibalulekile eYurophu ngoba zibonisa ukuthi iziphepho zingasebenzisana nendawo esempumalanga ye-Atlantic futhi, kwezinye izimo, ziguqule indlela evamile yokuguquguquka kweziphepho.
Ngenxa yalesi sizinda, izinhlangano ezifana ne-Weather Channel kanye nezikhungo ezahlukene zokubikezela zigcizelela ukubaluleka kwe- ukuqapha njalo amanzi afudumele aseCaribbean, iGulf of Mexico, kanye nentshonalanga ye-Atlanticngaphandle kokunganaki ingxenye esempumalanga eduze neYurophu, lapho ezimweni ezithile ingaba nezinhlelo zasezindaweni ezishisayo noma ezishisayo.
Izikhukhula kanye nezingozi zangaphakathi ezweni
Okuhlangenwe nakho okutholakale ezinkathini zakamuva kwenza umqondo owodwa ucace: Ingozi yesiphepho ayipheli ogwini lolwandleUma isiphepho noma isiphepho sasezindaweni ezishisayo sifika, singaqhubeka nokuhamba amakhulu amakhilomitha singene ezweni futhi siqhubeke nokukhiqiza iziqephu zemvula enkuluizikhukhula ezisheshayo kanye nokudilika komhlaba.
En 2012Isibonelo, isiphepho sasezindaweni ezishisayo I-Beryl Kwacishe kwafika emandleni esiphepho ngaphambi nje kokuba kufike enyakatho-mpumalanga yeFlorida, kwaqondana nempelasonto yeSikhumbuzo. Eminyakeni eminingi ngaphambili, ngo-2014. 2010, isiphepho sasezindaweni ezishisayo Bonnie Kwashiya imvula enkulu eqongelela ogwini lwaseCarolina ngasekupheleni kukaMeyi, ngaphambi kwesizini.
Esinye sezimo ezibonisa kakhulu senzeka e- 2018 nesiphepho AlbertoLolu hlelo luhlanganise indawo ebanzi kusukela eFlorida ukuya eNorth Carolina futhi waqhubeka nokuthuthuka kuze kube I-Míchiganokubangela imvula nezinkinga ezikude nezindawo ezisogwini ezivame ukuhlotshaniswa neziphepho. Le ndlela engavamile iyasiza ukuqonda ukuthi kungani Izifunda zangaphakathi kufanele futhi zifake ingozi yezikhukhula ezinhlelweni zabo.
Nakuba lezi zibonelo zigxile e-United States, umyalezo uyasebenza nakwezinye izindawo, okuhlanganisa neYurophu: izinsalela zeziphepho zasezindaweni ezishisayo eziba yiziphepho zingadala imvula enkulu ezindaweni ezingaphakathi nezwe, lapho abantu bavame khona Ayihlanganisi lezi ziqephu nomsebenzi e-Atlantic eshisayo..
Uma sibheka phambili esizini ka-2026, izinsizakalo zokuvikela umphakathi zisikhumbuza ukuthi ukuphathwa kwezingozi kumele kucabangele kokubili umthelela ogwini (amagagasi, umoya, ukukhukhuleka kwesiphepho) kanye izikhukhula zangaphakathi ezweni, okuye kwabangela izisulu eziningi kanye nomonakalo wezinto ezibonakalayo ngokomlando.
Ukulungiselela, umshwalense kanye nokuhlela umndeni
Uma sibheka lesi simo, inhloso eyinhloko icacile: Ukulungiselela akukwazi ukwenziwa ngendlela exakile uma isiphepho sesivele siseduzeNgakho-ke, izazi zezulu zincoma ukuthi imikhaya, amabhizinisi, kanye nezinhlangano zikahulumeni zibukeze izinhlelo zazo kusasele izinyanga eziningana, zisebenzise ukuthula okukhona ngaphambi kokuqala kwesizini okusemthethweni.
Phakathi kwezinyathelo eziphawuleka kakhulu ukuqashwa kwe- umshwalense othile wezikhukhulaEmazweni amaningi, okuhlanganisa nengxenye enkulu yeYurophu, izinqubomgomo zomshuwalense wendlu ezijwayelekile azimbozi umonakalo wezikhukhula ohambisana neziphepho zasezindaweni ezishisayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, lezi zinqubomgomo zivame ukuba nesikhathi sokulinda esicishe sibe [inani leminyaka]. Izinsuku ze-30Ngakho-ke, kubalulekile ukuzicubungula ngaphambi kokuba kuvele izixwayiso zokuqala.
Ochwepheshe bagcizelela ukuthi lesi sincomo asithinti nje kuphela labo abahlala ngasolwandle. ingaphakathi lezintaba, izigodi zemifula kanye nezindawo ezinomlando wezikhukhula ezisheshayo Kufanele futhi bacabangele lolu hlobo lokuvikelwa, njengoba izinsalela zesiphepho zingakhipha amanzi amaningi kakhulu kunezinga elijwayelekile.
Esinye isici esibalulekile ukudalwa kwe- isikhwama sezimo eziphuthumayoAkukhona ukuthi kuzoba nemali eningi kusukela ngosuku lokuqala, kodwa mayelana nokubeka eceleni imali encane ngezikhathi ezithile ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nokulungiswa okuphuthumayo, izindleko zokuhamba, noma ukuthengwa kwezinto ngemva kwesiphepho. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, lesi sikhwama semali senza kube lula ukuthuthukisa... ikhithi yezimo eziphuthumayo kwekhaya, okuhlanganisa amabhethri, amathoshi, amabhethri angaphandle kanye nezinye izinto eziyisisekelo.
Okokugcina, kunconywa ukuthi kubuyekezwe izinhlelo zokuthutha umndeniUkwazi imizila ephephile, izindawo zokuhlangana, indawo yemishini yezimo eziphuthumayo, kanye nokuzijwayeza ukuvivinya umzimba okulula kungenza umehluko omkhulu ezikhathini ezicindezelayo, lapho izinqumo kufanele zenziwe ngokushesha futhi ulwazi lufika njalo ngezimemezelo ezisemthethweni kanye nabezindaba.
Ukuhamba, ezokuvakasha, kanye namafasitela engozi enkulu
Ukuhlela amaholide nakho kuthinteka yindlela yokuziphatha kwesizini yeziphepho. Ochwepheshe baxwayisa ngokuthi ukuhamba uye eCaribbean noma ezindaweni ezithile zeGulf of Mexico phakathi kuka-Agasti no-Okthoba Lokhu kuhilela ukwenza kanjalo ngesikhathi semisebenzi yasezindaweni ezishisayo esezingeni eliphezulu, lapho kunengozi enkulu yokukhanselwa, ukushintsha umzila, ukuvalwa kwezindiza, kanye nezimo zezulu ezimbi.
Lokhu akusho ukuthi akunakwenzeka ukuhamba phakathi nalezo zinyanga, kodwa kuyalulekwa. hlola izinqubomgomo zomshuwalense wokuhamba ezicabangela izimo zezulu, ziqaphelisise izibikezelo, futhi zinezinhlelo ezihlukile. Endabeni yaseSpain nakwamanye amazwe aseYurophu, abahambi abaningi abaya ezindaweni ezishisayo phakathi nalesi sikhathi bathembele olwazini olunikezwa yizinhlangano, izindiza, kanye nezinsizakalo zezulu.
Kwezindawo zase-Europe Atlantic, njenge Iziqhingi zaseCanary, iMadeira noma i-Azores, ingxenye ye ngasekupheleni kwehlobo nasekwindla Futhi yisigaba esibucayi kakhulu, njengoba kunjalo lapho kunethuba elikhulu lokuthi izinsalela zeziphepho noma iziphepho zasezindaweni ezishisayo zizosondela esifundeni noma zihlangane nokujikeleza kwezinhlelo ezinomfutho ophansi.
Kulesi simo, ukuqaphela nokulandela izincomo ezisemthethweni kuyindlela engcono kakhulu yokunciphisa izinkinga ezingalindelekile, kokubili kubahlali kanye nezivakashi.
Zibizwa kanjani izishingishane?
Ngale kwamamephu nezibalo, esinye sezici ezivusa ilukuluku kakhulu minyaka yonke yi- uhlu olusemthethweni lwamagama eziphepho neziphepho zasezindaweni ezishisayoLolu hlu alunqunywa ngokungahleliwe: kusukela ngo-1953, I-National Hurricane Centre (NHC), ngokubambisana nekomidi lamazwe ngamazwe le- I-World Meteorological Organization (WMO), uyalondoloza uhlu lwamagama oluyisithupha olujikelezayo ukuze kutholakale i-Atlantic Basin.
Olunye lwalolu hlu lusetshenziswa minyaka yonke, futhi ngemva kweminyaka eyisithupha, uhlu olufanayo lusetshenziswa futhi, ngaphandle uma amagama esusiwe ngezizathu zokuthi umthelela omkhulu kubantu noma kwezomnothoUma isiphepho sibhubhisa kakhulu, igama laso liyasuswa ngenxa yokuhlonipha izisulu bese kufakwa esinye sezici ezifanayo (imvelaphi efanayo yolimi, futhi ngokuvamile, efanayo).
Ngesizini ka-2026, isiphepho sokuqala esiqanjwe ngegama sizoba Arthur, ilandelwa Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle noLeahphakathi kwabanye. Sekukonke, uhlu luhlanganisa Amagama angama-21,efinyelela ku UTeddy, uVicky noWilfred esigabeni sayo sokugcina. Kulesi senzakalo, igama Leah ungena endaweni yesehlakalo ukuze athathe indawo Laura, isusiwe ngemva komonakalo obangelwe yisiphepho sangaphambilini.
Uma inani leziphepho eziqanjwe ngamagama lidlula u-21 phakathi nesizini, uhlu olwengeziwe lwamagamaLolu hlelo, oluvunyiwe yi-WMO, luzosetshenziselwa ukukhomba ezinye iziphepho. Lokhu kugwema ukusetshenziswa kwezinhlamvu zamagama ezihlukile futhi kugcina uhlelo lokuhlonza olucacile noluhambisanayo.
Ukwazi la magama akuyona nje indaba yokuzibuza: kwenza kube lula ukuqapha izaziso ezisemthethweniKuthuthukisa ukuxhumana phakathi kwezazi zezulu, abezindaba kanye nomphakathi, futhi kusiza ukugwema ukudideka lapho kunezinhlelo eziningana ezisebenzayo ngesikhathi esisodwa e-Atlantic basin.
Isizini enezinto eziningi ezingaziwa kanye nokulungiselela okuyimpoqo
Uma zihlanganiswa, izinkomba zokuqala zikhomba ku-a isizini yeziphepho zase-Atlantic ecishe ibe yisilinganisoNjengoba i-El Niño isebenza njengento engaba nomthelela ekulawuleni, kodwa nolwandle lusagcwele ukushisa okungaqinisa ukwakheka kwesiphepho. Lokhu kuhlanganiswa kwezibonakaliso kudinga Chaza izibikezelo ngokucophelela futhi unikeze isisindo esikhulu kunanini ngaphambili ukuvimbela kusenesikhathi.
Okuhlangenwe nakho kwakamuva, iziphepho eziqala ngaphandle kwesizini kanye nezinhlelo ezingabangela izikhukhula kude nogu, zisikhumbuza ukuthi ingozi idlulela esikhathini nasesikhala ngale kwalokho okuboniswa yizinsuku ezisemthethweni kanye namamephu omthelela wendabuko. Njengoba kunikezwe lesi simo esishintshayo, inhlanganisela ulwazi oluthembekile, ukuhlela ikhaya, umshwalense owanele, kanye nokuxhumana kwezikhungo Kuvela njengesivikelo esingcono kakhulu esitholakalayo emiphakathini ezinhlangothini zombili ze-Atlantic.
