i-Pacific Ocean
Kwiplanethi lapho ama-75% obuso bayo embozwe ngamanzi, izilwandle zidlala indima ebaluleke kakhulu ekulawuleni isimo sezulu somhlaba wonke, kusukela ezigxotsheni kuya ezindaweni ezishisayo. Futhi kulapho, emanzini ashisayo asempumalanga yePacific, lapho kwenzeka khona isimo sezulu esiqala ngokwenziwa sibe sendawo, kepha esigcina sibe nemiphumela kuwo wonke umhlaba: I-El Niño.
Kulesi sihloko sizochaza ukuthi iyini nokuthi isithinta kanjani isimo sezulu somhlaba jikelele ngakho-ke ungafunda kabanzi ngezilwandle kanye nomthelela ezinazo kuzo zonke izingxenye zomhlaba wethu.
Uyini umcimbi we-El Niño?
I-El Niño Kuyinto ehlobene nokufudumala kwamanzi asempumalanga yenkabazwe yePacific, eyindilinga, eyenzeka njalo eminyakeni emithathu noma eyisishiyagalombili futhi ihlala izinyanga eziyi-8-10. Kuyisigaba esifudumele sephethini yesimo sezulu esiseNkabazwe ebizwa nge-El Niño-Southern Oscillation, i-ENSO ngesifinyezo sayo esiNgisini. Kuyisimo esidala umonakalo ongabaleki futhi omubi kakhulu ezindaweni ezihlangana nezindawo ezishisayo nezisenkabazwe, ikakhulu ngenxa yemvula enamandla.
Abadobi basePeru baqamba leli gama bebhekisela kumntwana onguJesu, njengoba amanzi afudumele avela minyaka yonke ngoKhisimusi. Kwaze kwaba ngo-1960 lapho kuqashelwa ukuthi kwakungeyona into yasePeruvia yendawo, kodwa ukuthi ngempela kunemiphumela kuyo yonke iPacific eshisayo ngisho nasendaweni engaphezulu. Ngakho-ke, kube nokwenzeka ukutadisha nokubhala phansi izizathu ze-El Niño ezithinta kakhulu isifunda nangale kwayo.
Akukacaci ukuthi lesi simo siqala kanjani, kepha isazi sezulu iMbali uJacob Bjerknes (1897-1975) wahlobanisa amazinga okushisa aphakeme olwandle nolwandle olubuthaka oluvela empumalanga kanye nemvula enamandla eyayihambisana nabo.
Kamuva, esinye isazi sesimo sezulu okuthiwa u-Abraham Levy sakuphawula lokho amanzi olwandle, abanda ngesikhathi sekwindla nasebusika, ayashisa futhi ngenxa yalokho, izinga lokushisa lomoya liyakhula. Imisinga yamanzi afudumele ihamba ngaphansi kolwandle, isuka e-Australia iya ePeru. Ngaphezu kwalokho, le misinga iyingxenye ebalulekile yokuqonda amandla amangalisayo e-El Niño kanye nemiphumela yako ku-global meteorology.
Kutholakala kanjani lo mkhuba?
Njengoba inemiphumela engalimaza, kubaluleke kakhulu ukuba nezinhlelo zokuyithola ngesikhathi. Ngakho-ke, kungathathwa izinyathelo ezifanele ukugwema inani elikhulu kakhulu lokufa kwabantu. Okwakho, iziphuphutheki, ama-buoy entantayo kuyasetshenziswa futhi nolwandle luyahlaziywa ukwazi ukuthi yiziphi izimo ezitholakala endaweni yolwandle enkabazwe. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umoya uyaphenywa, ngoba, njengoba sishilo ngaphambili, ukuguquka komoya kungaba inkomba yokuthi isenzakalo se-El Niño sesizokwenzeka. Ucwaningo olufana nalolo lwenziwe nalo, olubalulekile ekuqondeni ukuvela kwalo.
Linayiphi ithonya esimweni sezulu?
U-El Niño, into ebiqhubeka iminyaka eyizinkulungwane, unethonya elikhulu esimweni sezulu emhlabeni. Empeleni, namuhla kungashintsha izimo zezulu zendawo kangangokuba, ngenxa yokwanda kwesibalo sabantu, kuyaphuthuma ukuthi amazwe athintekile angathatha izinyathelo ezisebenza ngempela ukuze akwazi ukubhekana nemiphumela yawo. Futhi ukuthi, ngemuva kokuthuthuka kwayo, izinguquko emazingeni okushisa nasemaphethini emvula nemimoya zenzeka emhlabeni.
Masazi ukuthi iyini imiphumela yayo:
- Emhlabeni jikelele: amarekhodi okushisa, izinguquko ekusakazeni komkhathi, ukuvela kwezifo okunzima ukuziqeda (njengekholera), ukulahleka kwezitshalo nezilwane.
- ENingizimu Melika: ukwehla kwengcindezi yasemkhathini, ukufudumala kwezikhathi zeHumboldt zamanje nezomswakama kakhulu lapho imvula inamandla kakhulu.
- ENingizimu-mpumalanga Asia: ukwakheka kwamafu okuphansi, isomiso esinzima nokwehla kwezinga lokushisa olwandle
Noma kunjalo, kubalulekile ukuqaphela lokho abekho o-El Niño ababili abafanayo. Lokhu kusho ukuthi izindawo ezithinteke okokugcina zingase zingaphinde zithinteke. Bayoba namathuba aphezulu, yebo, kodwa ngeke kwenzeke ukwazi ngokuqinisekile. Ngakho-ke isidingo sokuqapha okuqhubekayo njengalokho okwenziwa ku ukuthobela izivumelwano zesimo sezulu kanye nenqubekelaphambili yocwaningo ngale ndaba.
Ubudlelwano phakathi kwe-El Niño nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu
Yize kungakaziwa kahle ukuthi ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kunomthelela muni ku-El Niño, ososayensi abaningana baveza ku ukutadisha eshicilelwe kumagazini i-Nature ngo-2014 ukuthi imvamisa yale nto, kanye namandla ayo, kungenzeka inyuke njengoba izinga lokushisa lomhlaba jikelele likhuphuka. Kodwa-ke, i-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ayisithathi lesi sixhumanisi njengesifakazelwe, kungani?
Impendulo ithi lapho sikhuluma ngokushintsha kwesimo sezulu sikhuluma ngokuthambekela kwesimo sezulu, kuyilapho into ye-El Niño ingokwehluka kwemvelo. Nokho, ezinye izazi zezulu, njengoJorge Carrasco, ziyavumelana nalolu cwaningo lokuthi ezweni elifudumele, ukuqina nokubanda kwe-El Niño kuzokwanda. Lokhu kungahlotshaniswa nesihloko esithi umthelela wokuguquka kwesimo sezulu kubantu kanye nokusebenzisana okuyinkimbinkimbi phakathi kwalezi zenzakalo.
Njengoba sibonile, i-El Niño yinto engaba nemiphumela eminingi futhi ebalulekile ezingxenyeni ezahlukahlukene zomhlaba. Ukuze siphephe, kubalulekile ukuthi sinciphise ukukhishwa kwamagesi abamba ukushisa ukuze sivikele izinga lokushisa elingaqhubeki nokukhuphuka, ngoba uma singenzi kanjalo, ngaphezu kwemiphumela yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu, kuzofanele sizivikele esimeni esibi kakhulu se-El Niño.
