Ososayensi babeka umkhawulo wokwanda kwamazinga okushisa aphakathi komhlaba ku-2 ° C. Kungani lokho kushisa? Ucwaningo oluhlukahlukene lukhombisa ukuthi kusukela kulokhu kushisa kwamazinga okushisa omhlaba, izinguquko emvelweni kanye nokusakazwa komhlaba nomoya, ushintsho olwenziwe lungeke luguquke futhi lungalindeki ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Ngalesi sizathu, ukuhlala ngaphansi kuka-1,5 ºC wokushisa komhlaba kungenye yezinhloso eziphakanyiswe yiSivumelwano SaseParis nokuthi amazwe angama-195 avumile ukubheka njengomkhawulo wokuphela kwekhulu leminyaka. Noma kunjalo, Ama-65% wesisindo seqhwa eliphakeme lezintaba e-Asia singalahleka uma ukukhishwa kwegesi ebamba ukushisa kuqhubeka kanjena. Ngabe izinguzunga zeqhwa zase-Asia ziyancibilika?
Isifundo se-Glacier yase-Asia
Ucwaningo, oluholwa yi-University of Utrecht (Holland), luveza ukuthi kuze kufike ku-65% wobuningi bezinguzunga zeqhwa ezintabeni e-Asia kungalahleka ngaphansi kwesimo samazinga aphezulu aqhubekayo wokukhiqizwa kwegesi yokushisa.
Uma ukungcola kuqhubeka ngezinga elisheshisiwe futhi elandayo abenza ngalo namuhla, izwekazi lase-Asia lizobhekana nokulahlekelwa okukhulu kweqhwa lokho kungaphazamisa imvelo yemvelo futhi kungaletha imiphumela emibi yokulethwa kwalezi zindawo eziphila ngakho. Amanzi okuphuza, amadamu kanye namadamu aphehlwa ngamanzi azosongelwa ukwehla kobuningi balezi zinguzunga zeqhwa.
Ezifundeni lapho amanzi ancibilikayo avela ezinguzungeni zeqhwa ebalulekile ekugelezeni kwemifula nasempilweni yezimbali nezilwane ezihambisana nazo. Ukuxhashazwa kwemifula yokuchelela izitshalo namasimu elayisi anikezwa ngamanzi avela ezinguzungeni zeqhwa kungancipha ukunyamalala kwawo.
Ngokushisa okuphezulu okushisa ngenxa yokukhishwa kwegesi lokushisa okwenzeka eChina, njengoba i-60% yenhlanganisela yamandla isuselwa ekushisweni kwamalahle, imvula ngendlela yeqhwa inyusa izinga layo elincane futhi izinguzunga zeqhwa zilahlekelwa isisindo kanye nomthamo. Lokhu kufana nalokho okubonakala kwezinye izindawo ezifana ne- Izinguzunga zeqhwa zase-Himalayan.
Ukunciphisa ukukhishwa komfula kungaholela ezinkingeni ezihlobene nokukhiqizwa kokudla namandla, okungaba nazo zonke izinhlobo zemiphumela emibi yokugeleza. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ucwaningo oluningi selukhombisile ukuthi umehluko phakathi kokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nokufudumala komhlaba kubalulekile ukuqonda lezi zenzakalo.
Ukuhlolwa komthelela nemiphumela
Ukuhlola umthelela ukulahleka kwalezi zinguzunga zeqhwa okuzokuveza ekuhlinzekelweni kwamanzi, ezolimo kanye nasemadamu okwenziwa ngogesi, ochwepheshe abasebenza kulolu cwaningo olushicilelwe ephephabhukwini i-Nature basebenzise imithombo eminingi yemvula nemininingwane yokushisa okuvela esimweni sezulu samanje. Ngokufanayo, zazisuselwa kwimininingwane yesathelayithi, imodeli yesimo sezulu yokuqagela kwezinguquko emvuleni nasemazingeni okushisa afinyelela ku-2100, futhi basebenzise nemiphumela yokusebenza kwabo ensimini okwenziwe eNepal ngama-UAV.
Iziphetho lolu cwaningo ezinikeze zona ngokuya ngesimo sezulu esibikezelwayo, noma sesimweni esihle lapho iSivumelwano saseParis sigcwaliseka khona futhi namazinga okushisa aphakathi komhlaba engakhuphukeli ngaphezu kuka-1,5 ° C, azolahleka Ama-35% wesisindo seqhwa ngonyaka ka-2100.
Ngokunyuka kwezinga lokushisa okulinganiselwa ku-3,5°C, 4°C, no-6°C, ukulahlekelwa okukhulu okucishe kube ngu-49%, 51%, no-65%, ngokulandelana, kuzokwenzeka. Lolu hlobo lokulahlekelwa lubuye lwahlaziywa ku amadolobha angashabalala ngenxa yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke, eqokomisa ubukhulu benkinga ebhekene nezinguzunga zeqhwa zase-Asia.
Imiphumela yokulahleka kweqhwa
Kunzima ukucacisa imiphumela ukulahleka kweqhwa okuzoba nayo esimweni sezulu seplanethi. Okuqinisekile yilokho imiphumela ezoba nayo iyoba mibi. Ukuqhubeka nokwazi imiphumela yokuhlehla kwalezi zinguzunga zeqhwa, kudingeka ucwaningo olunzulu oluchaza izinqubo zomzimba nezenhlalo kusetshenziswa idatha evela emithonjeni eminingi, kufaka phakathi imiphumela yalolu cwaningo.
Lapho usondela ezindaweni ezinoqhwa, kubaluleke kakhulu. Ngamanzi okuhlangana kwemisebenzi ehlukile yabantu. Nakuba kwezinye izindawo umnikelo we-glacial meltwater emifuleni mkhulu kunezinye, izingxenye zasentshonalanga ezomile zesifunda, njenge-Indus Basin, zincike kakhulu ekugelezeni okuqhubekayo kwamanzi e-glacial meltwater. Lokhu kugqamisa ukuphuthuma kwesimo maqondana ne imiphumela yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu kubantu abahlukahlukene.
