I-El Niño yinto yesimo sezulu eshukumisa imijikelezo yeminyaka emi-5 kuye kwengu-7. Ngaphandle kokuzinza okukhona kulo nyaka ka-2017, iWorld Meteorological Organisation (WMO) ayikhiphi i-100% ukuthi lo mkhuba wesimo sezulu usengakhula. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kubalulekile ukuphawula ukuthi lesi senzo sihlobene ne- I-El Niño phenomenon ngo-2025 kanye nomthelela wayo ezifundeni ezahlukene zomhlaba.
Lo mkhuba ushaya imimoya yezohwebo ebheke ePeru nase-Ecuador, kudale izivunguvungu ezinamandla kulezi zindawo eziholela kwizikhukhula ezinkulu. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, eNdiya kubangela isomiso esinamandla esibangela izinkinga zokudla nezolimo. Ngabe into ka-El Nino izophinda yenzeke ngo-2017?
Kungenzeka kwenzeke
I-WMO isungula amathuba okuba khona kwezimo ezithile zezulu ngokuya ngokuhlukahluka okuthile njengokushintshwa kwengcindezi, ukuqondisa komoya, iziphepho ezingaba khona, njll. Kungakho, ngokususelwa kubufakazi obuthile, ikhiphe isitatimende esithi kusuka phezulu kuya phezulu kungahle kube nezimo ezahlukahlukene zesimo sezulu kusuka ezimeni ezingathathi hlangothi kuya esiqeshini se-El Niño, kodwa ngamandla aphakathi nendawo. Lezi zimo ezimaphakathi zingase zibe nomthelela ekubikezelweni kwezimo zesikhathi esizayo, njenge Isici se-El Niño kanye nemithelela yayo yesimo sezulu.
Usho ukuthini amandla aphakathi nendawo? Yebo, izivunguvungu neziphepho ezingenziwa u-El Niño zizoba ncane kakhulu kunokujwayelekile. Umoya wezohwebo uzoshaya ngamandla amancane, ongeke udale izingqinamba ezinkulu kakhulu ezidala iziphepho ezinamandla kakhulu. Izazi zezulu zinamamodeli abikezela ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nemeteorology, futhi ngenxa yabo bangaqinisekisa ukuthi engxenyeni yesibili ka-2017 into ka-El Niño ingenzeka ngamathuba aphakathi kuka-50 no-60%. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kubalulekile ukucabangela ukuthi lezi zenzakalo zixhunyaniswa kanjani nezinye izimo zesimo sezulu kanye nokuhlukahluka kwezinkathi zonyaka.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amathuba okuthi isimo sezulu sesigamu sesibili sonyaka singathathi hlangothi ngama-40%.
I-El Niño Phenomenon
Njengoba lo mkhuba, yize waziwa, kungaba nzima ukuwuqonda, ngizophawula ngokubuyekezwa okufushane. Lesi senzakalo sikhiqiza imisinga yamanzi afudumele olwandle olusenkabazwe iPacific Ocean. Lokhu kubangela ukwanda kwamazinga okushisa olwandle ogwini. Njengoba sazi kahle, umoya oshisayo uvame ukukhuphukela emkhathini futhi kulapho lapho, lapho ushayisana khona nezindimbane zomoya obandayo, ugoqana bese uqala ukukhiqiza amafu e-cumulonimbus abheke phezulu. Lawa mafu ngokuvamile ayimbangela yeziphepho ezinamandla futhi, kulokhu, imicimbi yezulu eyeqisayo.
Isiqephu sokugcina se-El Niño senzeka ngekota yesine ka-2015 nasekuqaleni kuka-2016 (yingakho amazinga okushisa aphezulu abhekana nalobo busika) futhi kwaba nemiphumela elimazayo ezindaweni eziningi zomhlaba, okugcizelela ukubaluleka kokuqonda izenzakalo ezifana no Isici se-El Niño. Kumelwe sikhumbule ukuthi u-El Niño unemiphumela cishe kuwo wonke umhlaba, njengoba imisinga yasolwandle ihambisa ukushisa ikuyise kuzo zonke izindawo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, imiphumela yalesi simo ingaqiniswa ngenxa ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu.
Umonakalo odalwe ngu-El Niño
Yize into ka-El Niño ingokwemvelo, ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nokwehla kwamazinga okushisa omhlaba iyaqinisa futhi inyuse imvamisa yayo. I-El Niño ngo-2015 yathinta abantu abayizigidi ezingama-4,2 eMelika Ephakathi, izigidi ezingama-4,7 entshonalanga yePacific kanye nezigidi ezingama-30 eningizimu ye-Afrika, abathinteka yindlala nokusweleka kokudla ngenxa yesomiso esathatha isikhathi eside. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kudale izimvula ezinkulu zasendaweni ezisuka eziqhingini zaseGalapagos ziya ogwini lwase-Ecuador nasePeru, Babangela ukufa kwabantu abayi-101, abangu-19 banyamalala, abangu-353 balimala, izisulu ezingu-140.000 kwathi ababalelwa ku-940.000 bathinteka. Lokhu kusikhumbuza ukubaluleka kokulungiselela izehlakalo zesimo sezulu, kugqanyiswe isidingo sendlela eguquguqukayo.
Njengamanje, izimo zokufudumala kwenqwaba yolwandle engxenyeni esempumalanga yePacific ezithinte kakhulu iPeru namazwe asondelene nayo zinciphile. Lokhu kubangela ukuthi izimo ze-El Niño zingathathi hlangothi.
Isimo seLa Niña
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ochwepheshe bezimo zezulu be-WMO bathe umcimbi waseLa Niña cishe awunakwenzeka. Ngokungafani no-El Niño obangela ukwanda kwamazinga okushisa kwabantu basePacific, ILa Niña ibangela ukwehla kuzo, okubonisa ukubaluleka kokulinganisela emazingeni okushisa olwandle. Yingakho ezinye izifunda ezikhungethwe yisomiso lapho kuba khona i-El Niño zivamise ukuba nemvula enkulu, enyusa isilinganiso esivamile, noma okuphambene nalokho.
I-La Niña ibuye ihlotshaniswe nokwanda kweziphepho e-Atlantic Ocean. Lezi zigigaba ziyisisekelo sokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nemiphumela yazo yomhlaba wonke.
