La Isizini yeziphepho zika-2026 eMexico Ibonakala sengathi ingenye yezibukelwe kakhulu eminyakeni yamuva nje, ngokusho kwe- ukuqapha nokubikezela eMexicoIzibikezelo ezisekelwe kumarekhodi kusukela ngo-1964 zibonisa ukuthi Okungenani iziphepho ezinhlanu zasezindaweni ezishisayo zingathinta ngqo indawo yaseMexico, isibalo esivumelana nesilinganiso somlando kodwa esinezici ezengeziwe zesimo sezulu esingazinzile.
Imininingwane yokuqala ekhishwe yi- I-National Meteorological Service (SMN) futhi kuboniswe ku- Iseminari Yeziphepho Yomhlaba Yama-21Umhlangano obanjelwe eMérida ubonisa ukuthi izwe lizobhekana nesizini enzima. inani elikhulu lezinhlelo kanye namathuba eziphepho ezinamandla kokubili oLwandlekazini iPacific kanye ne-Atlantic. Okwamanje, iziphathimandla Zokuvikela Umphakathi zithuthukisa izinqubo futhi zakha amathuluzi amasha okuxwayisa kusenesikhathi ukuze kuncishiswe izingozi.
Izinsuku ezibalulekile zesizini yesiphepho sika-2026 eMexico
Ikhalenda elisemthethweni leziphepho eMexico lihlelwe ngokwemifula futhi lihlala lizinzile unyaka nonyaka, okuvumela abantu ukuthi balindele isikhathi sengozi enkulu. Ngo-2026, Izinsuku azishintshi., ngokusho kwe Izinsuku ezibalulekile namagamaKodwa kuyahlangabezana nezinga lokunakekelwa elinconywe yiziphathimandla.
Ku i-Pacific OceanIsizini iqala ngo- 15 ngoMeyi, okuhambisana nokuqala kwesizini yemvula engxenyeni enkulu yezwe, kuyilapho kuse- ULwandlekazi i-Atlantic, iGulf of Mexico, kanye noLwandle lwaseCaribbean isiqalo sibekwe ku- 1 ngoJuniKuzo zombili izigodi, ukuvalwa kuhlelelwe i- 30 ngoNovemba, njengenjwayelo.
I-SMN ichaze ezingxoxweni zakamuva ukuthi Isikhathi semvula kanye nesizini yesiphepho esishisayo kuhlobene kakhuluIzinhlelo zokuqala zasezindaweni ezishisayo ezakheka ePacific zivame ukuphawula ukuqala kwesizini yemvula. Eqinisweni, le nhlangano ibikezela ukuthi izimvula zizosabalala cishe ngoMeyi 15, ngokuvumelana namaphethini esimo sezulu abonakalayo.
Ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo, futhi ikakhulukazi phakathi Juni no-OkthobaKulindeleke ukuthi kube nokugcwala okukhulu kwemicimbi, kanye nokwanda kwemisebenzi yasezindaweni ezishisayo phakathi nehlobo kanye nasekuqaleni kwekwindla, lapho amazinga okushisa olwandle ephakeme futhi umkhathi uba ngcono kakhulu ekuthuthukisweni kweziphepho.
Ngaphambi kokuba isizini iqale ngokusemthethweni, i-SMN kanye ne- I-National Coordination of Civil Protection Bazokwethula isibikezelo esiningiliziwe seziphepho ezilindelekile. Lokhu kubalwa, okuzokwenziwa umphakathi phakathi ngasekupheleni kuka-April nasekuqaleni kukaMeyiIzocacisa inani leziphepho neziphepho ezilindelekile esitsheni ngasinye futhi izosebenza njengesiqondiso sezinyathelo zokuvimbela ezifundazweni ezisogwini.
Zingaki iziphepho ezilindelekile futhi zingaba namuphi umthelela?
Izilinganiso zokuqala ze Isevisi yeMeteorological National Futhi ochwepheshe besimo sezulu bakhomba ku- isizini ematasa kakhulu kunokujwayelekileSekukonke, phakathi kwePacific ne-Atlantic, okulandelayo kungakheka: phakathi kwezinhlelo zasezindaweni ezishisayo ezingama-29 nezingama-39, inani elidlula isilinganiso somlando samashumi eminyaka ambalwa edlule.
Ngokuba i-Pacific Ocean ukwakheka phakathi Iziphepho zasezindaweni ezishisayo ezingu-15 no-20ngenkathi ngise I-Atlántico Ukubikezela kubeka umsebenzi phakathi Izinhlelo ezingu-14 no-19Akubona bonke abazofinyelela amandla esiphepho noma basondele ezweni, kodwa kulindeleke ukuthi ingxenye enkulu ingabangela imvula enkulu, umoya onamandla kanye namagagasi aphezulu ezindaweni ezisogwini.
Kusekelwe kumarekhodi esimo sezulu aqoqwe kusukela I-1964 kuze kufike ku-2025Ochwepheshe be-SMN balinganisela ukuthi, ngokwesilinganiso, Iziphepho ezintathu ngonyaka zithinta ugu lwasePacific kanti ezimbili zithinta ugu lwase-AtlanticKulokhu kuvela isibalo sokubhekisela sika-2026: cishe iziphepho ezinhlanu zasezindaweni ezishisayo ezinemiphumela eqondile eMexicokungaba ngokushayisana nomhlaba noma ngama-rain string kanye nemimoya eseduze nogu.
Kodwa-ke, ochwepheshe baphikelela ngokuthi lokhu kuyinani lesimo sezulu hhayi inombolo eqondile. Ukuziphatha kwangempela kwesizini ngayinye kungahluka ngokwesilinganiso: ngo-2025, isibonelo, iziphepho ezimbili kuphela ezafika eMexico, ngaphansi kakhulu kwesilinganiso, yize amandla ezinhlelo eziningana zasogwini ayemangalisa.
Ngaphandle kwenani leziphepho, ukukhathazeka okuyinhloko yi- ukuqina abangakufinyelelaIzibikezelo zibonisa ukuthi Okungenani izishingishane ezine noma ezinhlanu ogwini ngalunye zingaguquka zibe yizigaba ezinkulu (3, 4 noma 5) esikalini seSaffir-SimpsonLokhu kubeka engcupheni enkulu ingqalasizinda ebalulekile, izindawo zezivakashi kanye nemiphakathi esogwini.
Izifundazwe ezivezwe kakhulu nezindawo ezisengozini enkulu
Umthelela wesizini yeziphepho awusatshalaliswa ngokulinganayo ogwini lolwandle. Idatha yomlando ibeka izifundazwe eziningana njenge izindawo ezibucayi kakhulu emiphumeleni yeziphepho neziphepho ezivela kokubili ePacific nase-Atlantic.
Emthambekeni we Pacific, Phuma I-Baja California Sur kanye nesimo se GuerreroLesi sakamuva sisalokhu siqashwe ngeso lokhozi yiziphathimandla ngemuva kokubandakanyeka ezigamekweni eziningana ezahlukene eminyakeni yamuva. imiphumela yesiphepho ezibangele umonakalo omkhulu, njengoba izigameko zakamuva zeziphepho ezisezingeni eliphezulu zihlola amandla okusabela endaweni.
Emcengezini we I-AtlánticoIzindawo ezikhathazayo zigxile kakhulu Quintana Roo, Yucatán, Veracruz kanye neTamaulipas, izinhlangano ezine ezichayeke kakhulu ezinhlelweni ezihlelwe ku ULwandle lwaseCaribbean kanye neGulf of MexicoNgaphezu kobuthakathaka bayo ngokwendawo, ukubaluleka kwezokuvakasha kanye nomnotho kwalezi zindawo Lokhu kwenza noma yikuphi ukulimala kube nemiphumela emikhulu.
Kodwa-ke, imiphumela yeziphepho ayigcini ezindaweni ezisogwini. Imigqa yemvula ehlotshaniswa neziphepho neziphepho Zingahamba amakhulu amakhilomitha zingene ezweni, okubangela izikhukhula, ukudilika komhlaba, kanye nezikhukhula ezinkulu ezindaweni ezikude nendawo lapho kungathinteka khona. Ngenxa yalesi sizathu, iNational Meteorological Service (SMN) kanye neCivil Protection bagcizelela ukuthi izinyathelo zokuvimbela kumele zinwetshwe kuyo yonke indawo.
Kulo mongo, izikhumulo zezindiza kanye nemizila emikhulu yezokuthutha Zibhekwa njengezingqalasizinda ezihlelekile, ngoba ngesikhathi sezimo eziphuthumayo zisebenza njengezindawo ezibalulekile zokuthutha abantu, ukudluliselwa kwamaqembu okuhlenga kanye nokwamukelwa kosizo lwabantu.
Umthelela we-El Niño, La Niña nokufudumala kolwandle
Ukuziphatha kwesizini yeziphepho zika-2026 kuhlobene kakhulu nesimo sesimiso sezulu somhlaba wonke, ikakhulukazi ekuguqukeni kwezenzakalo. I-El Niño y Intombazane, okushintsha izinga lokushisa kanye namaphethini okujikeleza komoya ePacific eshisayo.
Njengoba kuchaziwe U-Alejandro García Jiménez, ophethe i-Sub-Management of Meteorology and Climate Services ye-SMN, iMexico okwamanje ibhekene ne- isigaba soguqukoUhlelo lushiya izimo Intombazane futhi ubheke esimweni esilawulwa yi I-El Niño, kanye nokwanda okulindelwe ku- izinga lokushisa lolwandle lwasePacific olushisayo phakathi nezinyanga zikaJuni, uJulayi kanye no-Agasti.
Lolu shintsho luvame ukuhunyushwa ngokuthi ukwanda komsebenzi wesiphepho ePacific futhi, ngezinye izikhathi, ukwehla okuncane ekwakhekeni kwezinhlelo e-Atlantic. Kodwa-ke, ochwepheshe bagcizelela ukuthi impendulo ayizenzakalelayo, njengoba Ezinye izici zihilelekile njengokucindezela komoya, uhlelo lomoya ezindaweni eziphakeme, kanye nokwakheka kwamafu emazingeni ahlukene omkhathi.
I-El Niño ayinayo imiphumela nje kuphela enanini leziphepho, kodwa futhi nakumaphethini emvula kanye namazinga okushisa. ukwandisa ingozi yesomiso Kwezinye izifunda, ukuqinisa Imvula eningizimu naseningizimu-mpumalanga yeMexico futhi kulungiswe ukusatshalaliswa kwezigameko zemvula enamandla, okunemiphumela eqondile emikhakheni efana nezolimo, ukuphathwa kwamanzi kanye nesidingo sikagesi.
Ngenxa yalesi simo, i-SMN igcina Ukuqapha okuqhubekayo isimo solwandle kanye nomkhathi ukulungisa ukubikezela kwayo njengoba ulwazi olwengeziwe lutholakala. Izibikezelo zesizini zizobuyekezwa phakathi nentwasahlobo, kugxilwe kakhulu ehlobo nasekwindla, lapho imiphumela ye-El Niño ivame ukuba namandla khona.
Izibikezelo ezisemthethweni kanye nendima ye-International Hurricane Seminar
Ulwazi oluningi lokuqala mayelana nesizini ka-2026 lwethulwe ku- Iseminari Yeziphepho Yomhlaba Yama-21, inkundla lapho izazi zezulu, izikhulu zokuvikela umphakathi kanye nabamele izikhungo zomphakathi behlangana khona ukuze hlaziya izitayela futhi uthuthukise ukulungela iziphepho zasezindaweni ezishisayo.
Ngesikhathi somhlangano, owawubanjelwe e I-Merida YucatanIsilinganiso semiphumela esekelwe kumarekhodi aphakathi I-1964 ne-2025, kanye nesilinganiso sokuthi Iziphepho ezicishe zibe yisihlanu zasezindaweni ezishisayo zingafika eMexico ngo-2026Ochwepheshe bagcizelele ukuthi lokhu kuyindawo yokubhekisela yesimo sezulu engashintshashintsha iye phezulu noma phansi kuye ngokuthi izimo zolwandle kanye nesimo sezulu zishintsha kanjani.
Umphathi we-Meteorology kanye ne-Climatology e-SMN, URafael Trejo VázquezUgcizelele ukuthi Kusalungiswa isibikezelo esinemininingwane. futhi izokwethulwa ngokusemthethweni emhlanganweni ne-National Civil Protection Coordination ohlelelwe u-Ephreli. Kulowo mhlangano, inani elilindelekile leziphepho kuzo zombili izigodi lizochazwa, kanye nezimo eziyingozi zesifunda ngasinye.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, UFabian Vazquez RomañaUmxhumanisi jikelele we-SMN ugcizelele isidingo sokuthi Qinisa izinyathelo zokuvimbela kanye nesiko lokuzivikelaUkukhumbula ukuthi inhlanganisela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, amazinga okushisa aphezulu olwandle kanye nokuhlala emadolobheni ezindaweni ezisengozini kwandisa ukuchayeka ezinhlekeleleni zemvelo.
Phakathi kwezinto eziza kuqala ezihlonzwe kulo mhlangano kwakuwukuqiniswa kwe- izinhlelo zokuqapha isimo sezulu, ukuthuthukiswa kwe izinqubo zokuvikela umphakathi emazweni asogwini kanye nokuvuselelwa kwezinhlelo zokuphuma kwabantu kanye nezindawo zokukhosela zesikhashana, ikakhulukazi ezindaweni ezinabantu abaningi kanye nemisebenzi yezivakashi.
Ubuchwepheshe, izexwayiso zakuqala, kanye namathuluzi amasha okuqapha
Ngaphezu kokubikezela kweziphepho, i-SMN isebenza ekuthuthukisweni kwe amathuluzi amasha obuchwepheshe ukuthuthukisa ukuqapha izinhlelo zasezindaweni ezishisayo kanye nokusatshalaliswa kolwazi emphakathini ngesikhathi sangempela. Umgomo ukunciphisa umkhawulo wokumangala nokwenza kube lula ngabantu ukwenza izinqumo ezinolwazi kusenesikhathi.
Enye yezinhlelo ezivelele zalesi sizini ukuhlolwa kwe- uhlelo lwesaziso sefoni yeselula Yenzelwe ngqo izenzakalo ezihlobene neziphepho, ezifana nalezo esezisetshenziswa kakade zokuzamazama komhlaba kwezinye izindawo. Le ndlela izovumela izaziso eziqondile ukuthi zithunyelwe kubasebenzisi mayelana izimvula ezinkulu, imimoya enamandla, noma izikhukhula ezingaba khona ezihlobene neziphepho neziphepho.
Lezi zixwayiso zizohambisana nezixwayiso zendabuko ezikhishwe yi- I-SMN, iKhomishini Yamanzi Kazwelonke (iConagua) kanye Nokuvikelwa Komphakathikusatshalaliswa ngemithombo yezindaba, amanethiwekhi omphakathi, kanye neziteshi ezisemthethweni. Inhloso iwukuba ulwazi lufinyelele abantu ngeziteshi eziningi futhi lube kucacile, ngesikhathi esifanele futhi kulula ukukuqonda kunoma yisiphi isakhamuzi.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, i amamodeli okubikezela amanani Lawa mathuluzi asetshenziselwa ukubikezela indlela, isivinini, kanye namandla eziphepho. Ukuthuthukiswa kwala mathuluzi, okusekelwa idatha evela kumasathelayithi, ama-ocean buoy, kanye nama-radar esimo sezulu, kuvumela ukuhlukaniswa okunembile kwezindawo ezingase zithinteke.
Konke lokhu kuyingxenye yesu elibanzi lokuzivumelanisa nezimo ukwenyuka kokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nokwanda kwezehlakalo ezimbi kakhuluokungagcini nje ngokuthinta iMexico, kodwa nezinye izindawo ezivezwe e-Atlantic nasePacific, okuhlanganisa nengxenye enkulu yesihlabathi saseCaribbean.
Ziqanjwa kanjani iziphepho zasezindaweni ezishisayo futhi yiziphi izinhlu ezizosetshenziswa ngo-2026?
Esinye isici esivame ukuheha ukunaka komphakathi minyaka yonke yi- uhlu lwamagama azotholwa yiziphephoI-World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) ilawula lolu hlelo lokuqamba amagama, olusebenzisa uhlu oluchazwe kusengaphambili luhlelwe ngokulandelana kwezinhlamvu yesitsha ngasinye futhi ezijikeleziswa ngemijikelezo yeminyaka eyisithupha.
Isiphepho sasezindaweni ezishisayo sithola igama elifanele lapho Ifinyelela esigabeni seziphepho zasezindaweni ezishisayoOkusho ukuthi, uma ithola imimoya eqhubekayo okungenani Amakhilomitha angama-63 ngehoraNgaphambi kwalowo mkhawulo, ubizwa ngezinombolo noma izinhlamvu, kodwa awutholi igama elisemthethweni ohlwini.
Endabeni INyakatho-mpumalanga yePacificIsizini ka-2026 izosebenzisa uhlu oluqala ngo U-Amanda, uBoris noCristinaozolandelwa, phakathi kwabanye, Douglas, Elida, Fausto, Geneviev, Hernan, Iselle, Julio njalo njalo kuze kube yilapho izinhlamvu zamagama seziqediwe. Igama ngalinye lisetshenziswa kanye kuphela ngesizini futhi aliphindaphindwa kuze kube yilapho uhlu luphinde lujikelezwe futhi eminyakeni eyisithupha kamuva.
Ngokuba I-AtlánticoIsiphepho sokuqala esiqanjwe ngegama sika-2026 sizoba Arthur, ilandelwa UBertha, uCristóbal, uDolly, u-Edouard, uFay, uGonzalo noHannaphakathi kwabanye. NjengasePacific, uhlu luqhubeka ngokulandelana kwama-alfabhethi kuze kufike kuhlamvu u-W, kanye UWilfred njengoba isibongo sihleliwe.
Uma isiphepho sibangela umonakalo omkhulu kakhulu noma inani elikhulu lezisuluIgama layo liyasuswa ohlwini ukuze kugwenywe ukudideka kanye nobudlelwano obubi esikhathini esizayo. Lokhu kunjalo, isibonelo, ngamagama athathelwe indawo ngemva kwezinkathi zakamuva eCaribbean, lapho iziphepho ezibhubhisayo kakhulu zaholela i-WMO faka izikhundla ezintsha ukuze zithathe indawo yezangaphambilini.
Izindlela zokuvimbela ezinconyiwe kubantu
Nakuba isigaba esisebenza kakhulu sisesekude, iziphathimandla zigcizelela ukuthi Ukulungiselela kufanele kuqale kusenesikhathi.Okuhlangenwe nakho kwezinkathi zangaphambilini kubonisa ukuthi isiphepho esisodwa esihlelekile kahle sanele ukubangela isenzakalo esinomthelela omkhulu, esinomonakalo omkhulu wezinto ezibonakalayo kanye nemiphumela yomphakathi.
Phakathi kwezincomo eziyisisekelo, i-Civil Protection iphakamisa ube nendawo encane yokugcina izinto eziphuthumayo Paka amanzi okuphuza, ukudla okungaboli, imithi evame ukusetshenziswa, kanye nezibani zamathoshi ngamabhethri asele. Lolu hlobo lwezinto ezisetshenziswayo lungenza umehluko omkhulu uma ugesi noma ukufinyelela ezitolo kuphazanyiswa izinsuku eziningana.
Ngokufanayo, abantu bayabuzwa Landela imibiko esemthethweni eduze I-National Meteorological Service (SMN) kanye neziphathimandla zendawo kuyaxoxwa nazo, kunokuthembela kumahemuhemu noma ulwazi olungaqinisekisiwe olusakazwa ezinkundleni zokuxhumana. Izexwayiso zesiphepho, izexwayiso, kanye nezaziso eziphuthumayo kukhishwa kusenesikhathi ukuze umphakathi ukwazi ukwenza izinqumo ezinolwazi.
Enye inkomba ebalulekile Gwema ukusondela emifuleni, emifuleni, emifuleni kanye nasezindaweni ezisogwini Uma kubikezelwa izimvula ezinkulu noma ukuqhuma kwesiphepho. Ngisho noma isiphepho singafiki endaweni eqondile lapho umuntu ehlala khona, amabhande emvula angadala ukukhuphuka okungazelelwe kwamazinga amanzi kanye namagagasi ayingozi kakhulu kude kakhulu nesikhungo sesistimu.
Okokugcina, ochwepheshe batusa ukuthi babukeze ngokucophelela izinhlelo eziphuthumayo zomndeni: vumelana ngezindawo zokuhlangana, thola izindawo zokukhosela zesikhashana eziseduze, hlola isimo sendlu futhi wazi izindlela zokuphuma ezichazwe yiziphathimandla zendawo, ikakhulukazi ezindaweni ezisezindaweni ezisemagqumeni, emifuleni noma ezindaweni eziphansi ezivame ukuba nezikhukhula.
Uma sibheka ndawonye, ulwazi olutholakalayo lwango-2026 ludweba isithombe isizini yesiphepho esisebenzayo esiphawulwe yithonya lika-El NiñoNjengoba kuneziphepho eziningi kunesilinganiso kanye namathuba amakhulu ezigameko ezinzima kuzo zombili izindawo zaseMexico, lesi sibikezelo sisathuthukiswa. Izilinganiso zomlando zibonisa ukuthi cishe iziphepho ezinhlanu zingathinta izwe ngqo, okuthi, kuhlangene nokufudumala kolwandle kanye nokwanda kokuchayeka ezindaweni ezisogwini, kwenza ukuvimbela, ukuthuthukisa izinhlelo zokuxwayisa, kanye nokulalela izixwayiso ezisemthethweni kubaluleke kakhulu kunanini ngaphambili.
