El ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu Kuyinkinga ebucayi ebhekene nesintu, futhi bekungeke kube bucayi kangako ukube bekuthathwe izinyathelo ezifanele zokuvikela iplanethi yethu esikhundleni sokuyixhaphaza ngaphandle kwemingcele. Ukukhishwa okuqhubekayo kwe amagesi abamba ukushisa njenge-carbon dioxide (CO2) kanye ne-methane (CH4) iholele ekungalinganini kwe-ecosystem yomhlaba, okuholele ekutheni iplanethi ingene enkathini entsha ye-geological: the I-Anthropocene. Kule nkathi, i- umthelela wokuguquka kwesimo sezulu Izwakala ezingxenyeni ezihlukahlukene zomhlaba, kuhlanganise nemiphumela ebonakalayo endaweni ezungezile kanye nezinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo.
Yize zikhona izindlela ezingasetshenziswa ukudambisa imiphumela emibi yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, ucwaningo olwenziwe ngongoti base-United States naseGermany, olushicilelwe ephephabhukwini i-'Nature', lukhomba ukuthi imizamo enjalo. bekungeke kube ngokwanele ukumisa ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke. URobert Pincus, omunye wososayensi ababambe iqhaza kulolu cwaningo, uthe "iwindi lamathuba" livalwa ngokushesha.
Uma inhloso kuwukukhawulela ukwanda kwezinga lokushisa elijwayelekile leplanethi lingabi ngaphezu kuka-1,5 degrees Celsius, kuyadingeka thatha isinyathelo ngokushesha kanye nokunciphisa ukuthembela emafutheni ezinto ezimbiwa phansi nokunye ukungcola. Nokho, ngisho nangesinyathelo esisheshayo, kungaba nzima ukugwema ukufudumala okuphakathi kwamadigri amabili namathathu. Lesi simo siyethusa, ikakhulukazi uma sicabangela ukuthi abanye amadolobha angashabalala ngenxa yalesi sigameko, esigqamisa ukuphuthuma kokuthatha isinyathelo ngokumelene nomthelela wokuguquka kwesimo sezulu e-Anthropocene.
Uma kubhekwa lesi simo, kubalulekile ukuthi abantu bazi ngokwenzekayo ngesimo sezulu soMhlaba, njengoba ukwehluleka ukwenza lokho kungaba nemiphumela ebuhlungu ezimpilweni eziningi njengoba izinga lokushisa leplanethi lilokhu likhuphuka futhi ukuncibilika kweqhwa kuba kubi kakhulu. Ukujwayela imiphakathi kulezi zinguquko kubalulekile ukuze iphile.
Kusho ukutadisha Isekelwe ekuhlolweni okuqondile kokushintsha kwesimo sezulu nasekuhlaziyeni amandla olwandle okumunca ikhabhoni, kanye nezinhlayiya ezikhona emkhathini. Ubufakazi obuqoqiwe kufanele bubonakale njenge isaziso okusinika isikhathi esincane sokwenza izinyathelo ezisebenzayo ezivumela amadolobha nemiphakathi ukuthi ivumelane nezwe elishintshashintshayo. Lokhu kuzivumelanisa nezimo kuyisihluthulelo sokuqinisekisa ukuthi umthelela wokuguquka kwesimo sezulu ungacekeli phansi imvelo yethu.
Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuyisenzakalo esijikelezayo esibonise izikhathi eziningi zokufudumala kanye neminyaka yeqhwa kuwo wonke umlando wokwakheka komhlaba. Kodwa-ke, okwamanje sisenkathini yeqhwa, siphuma kwenye inkathi yeqhwa ngaphambi kokuthi singene kwenye. Lokhu kuphakamisa ukukhathazeka ngokuthi umsebenzi womuntu ungandisa ngokuzenzakalelayo lesi sigaba esifudumele, yingakho abanye ososayensi bephikisana ngokuthi umthelela ku-Anthropocene ubalulekile.
Ukuqonda i-Anthropocene kanye nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu
El IPCC (I-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) ichaza ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu njengokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, okubonakaliswa ngokuhlukahluka kwesilinganiso nokuhlukahluka kwezakhiwo zakho esikhathini eside, ngokuvamile amashumi eminyaka noma ngaphezulu.
Phakathi kwemiqondo ehambisana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, kunokudideka okuthile lapho kukhulunywa ngokungacacile isimo sezulu y Isimo sezulu. Isimo sezulu sisho izinguquko zansuku zonke ezimweni zemvelo zomkhathi, ezichazwa ngezinto eziguquguqukayo ezifana nezinga lokushisa, ukucindezela, umoya, imisebe yelanga, umswakama, kanye nemvula. Isimo sezulu, ngakolunye uhlangothi, simele isimo esimaphakathi salezi zimo esikhathini eside, ngokuvamile iminyaka engama-30, ngokusho kwe-World Meteorological Organization.
Njengamanje, amazinga okushisa ngokwesilinganiso aphakeme ngedigri Celsius eyodwa kunenkathi yangaphambi kwezimboni, futhi kunamathuba angama-1,5% okuthi amazinga okushisa azodlula ku-70°C eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo. Lokhu kunyuka kwezinga lokushisa emhlabeni kuxhumene ngqo nokwanda kwamagesi abamba ukushisa ngenxa yemisebenzi yabantu, exhumene kakhulu nemithelela engemihle eziphilayo. Lesi simo siyakhathaza ikakhulukazi uma sicabangela lokho umehluko phakathi kokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nokufudumala komhlaba Zicashile, kodwa zibalulekile.
I-greenhouse effect iyinqubo yemvelo, ngaphandle kwalokho izinga lokushisa loMhlaba belingaba ngaphansi kuka-30°C, okwenza ukuphila eMhlabeni kube nzima. Nokho, phakathi neminyaka eyi-100 edlule, lo mphumela uye washuba ngokushesha, ngokufudumala okucishe kube ngu-0,6°C okubonwe eminyakeni engu-30 edlule.
Izinselelo ezintsha esibhekene nazo azihlanganisi nje kuphela ukulondolozwa kwezinhlobo zeplanethi, kodwa futhi nokongiwa kwemvelo. imvelo yemvelo ezicekelwa phansi ngezinga elingakaze libonwe ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu emhlabeni. Kulo mongo, kubalulekile ukucabangela ukuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kushintsha kanjani ukufika kwezinyoni ezingavamile eSpain, into egqamisa ukuxhumana kwezinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo nesimo sezulu. Lezi zinguquko ziwumfanekiso ocacile we- umthelela wokuguquka kwesimo sezulu ezilwaneni zasendle.
La ukuguqulwa kwe-anthropogenic Kwaqala kusenesikhathi, ngezinguquko ezifana ne-Neolithic Revolution, lapho isintu sashintsha sisuka ekubeni ngumzulane saya endleleni yokuphila yokuhlala, siqhuba umnotho osekelwe kwezolimo nemfuyo, okwaholela ekuguquleni nasekuhlukaniseni izindawo zokuhlala okwagcina kuholele ekukhuleni kwezimayini kanye nenguquko yezimboni. Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi kukhona futhi umphumela ophawulekayo we- isimo sezulu kwabesifazane abakhulelwe.
Inkinga yesimo sezulu ayiyona into engavamile; ihlobene nobulungiswa bezenhlalakahle nezomnotho. Amazwe angathuthukile kancane avamise ukuba sengozini enkulu emiphumeleni yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, nakuba igalelo lawo ekungcolisekeni lincane. Kulesi simo, i- I-Anthropocene ibhekisela enkathini yamanje yokuma komhlaba ebonakala ngomthelela omkhulu womuntu emhlabeni kuzo zombili izinhlelo zasemhlabeni kanye nezomkhathi.
Umthelela womuntu kanye nobufakazi be-Anthropocene
Leli gama I-Anthropocene Yathandwa usosayensi uPaul Crutzen ngo-2000 ukuchaza inkathi ethintwa imisebenzi yabantu. Ucwaningo lwakamuva lusikisela ukuthi isintu sibe nomthelela omkhulu emijikelezweni ye-biogeochemical yeplanethi, okubonisa inkathi entsha lapho umsebenzi womuntu wakha amandla okuma komhlaba.
Kodwa-ke, kunenkulumompikiswano mayelana nokwamukelwa kwe-Anthropocene njengeyunithi ye-geological esemthethweni, ngenxa yokuntuleka kobufakazi be-stratigraphic ngomqondo wendabuko. Noma kunjalo, ukwanda kwe-CO2 ne-CH4 kubhalwe kahle futhi kwabonwa kuma-ice cores nama-sediments olwandle, okukhombisa umthelela oqhubekayo wokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kumaphethini wesimo sezulu somhlaba kanye nezinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo.
Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuqhutshwa imisebenzi yabantu, eye yadlondlobala kusukela kuNguquko Yezimboni. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ukufudumala kwamanje nokuseduze kungaqhubeka kungahlehli izinkulungwane zeminyaka uma zingathathwa izinyathelo eziphuthumayo, njengoba isimo izikhukhula zizoba bucayi kakhulu.
Ukuxhumana phakathi kokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nomthelela wako ezinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo akunakuphikwa. I-ecosystem ingaphansi kwengcindezi futhi izinhlobo zezilwane zibhekana namazinga ashaqisayo okuqothulwa, okuholela ekukhathazekeni okukhulayo mayelana nokuthi isimo sezulu kanye ne-Anthropocene zizozithinta kanjani izinhlobo zezilwane, njenge-African aardvarks, ehlushwa ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Lezi zinhlobo zezilwane zithintwa kakhulu yinkinga yesimo sezulu.
Ngokusheshisa ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke, izinto ezinjengomlilo wamahlathi, iziphepho ezinamandla kakhulu, nesomiso esithatha isikhathi eside ziya ngokuya ziba ziningi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukugcwala kwezikhukhula ezindaweni ezisogwini ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle kusongela izindlu nokulondeka kokudla, kudala umjikelezo wezingozi eziya ziba zimbi unyaka ngamunye. Lokhu futhi kuhlobene nokuthi kanjani izingwadule zisongelwa.
Ukubheka ikusasa: ukuzivumelanisa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu
Izilinganiso zesikhathi esizayo zibonisa ukuthi ngaphandle kwesinyathelo esiwujuqu, iplanethi ingase ifinyelele amazinga okushisa angakaze abe khona emlandweni wamuva. Izinhlangano zamazwe ngamazwe njenge IPCC basebenzela ukusungula amasu okunciphisa nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, abalulekile ekubhekaneni nezinselele ezisazo.
Izinyathelo zokuzivumelanisa nezimo zihlanganisa ukuqaliswa kwe ubuchwepheshe obuhlaza futhi okusimeme ekutshalweni kabusha kwamahlathi kanye nokuphathwa kwamanzi. Nokho, i ukungenzi lutho kohulumeni kanye nokuntuleka kwezinqubomgomo ezifanele kukhinyabeze lezi zinhlelo. Naphezu kwentuthuko kwezesayensi nobuchwepheshe, ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuseyinto engokoqobo okufanele sibhekane nayo, futhi sekuya kuba sobala kakhulu lokho ukutshala imali engqalasizinda eluhlaza kubalulekile ukuzivumelanisa nezimo.
Umphakathi wesayensi uxwayisa ngokuthi isikhathi siyahamba. Kufanele sisebenzele ikusasa lapho intuthuko yomuntu ihambisana nempilo yeplanethi. Imfundo nokuqwashisa kungamathuluzi abalulekile okunika abantu amandla nokugqugquzela ushintsho oluhle.
Izinguzunga zeqhwa ziyehla emhlabeni wonke, futhi lokhu akuthinti nje kuphela indawo, kodwa futhi kunomthelela ekufinyeleleni emanzini ahlanzekile, abalulekile empilweni. Ukuncipha kweqhwa lasolwandle i-Arctic kulimaza izindawo zokuhlala zezinhlobo eziningi zezilwane, futhi umthelela walo uzwakala kulo lonke uchungechunge lokudla. Kuyaziwa lokho I-Antarctic krill idlala indima ebalulekile kulesi simiso sezinto eziphilayo, iyingxenye ebalulekile yochungechunge lokudla.
Ukusebenzisana kwamazwe ngamazwe kubalulekile ekubhekaneni nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu. Izivumelwano zaseParis kanye nezinye izinhlelo zisungula uhlaka lokubambisana phakathi kwezizwe, okwenza kube semqoka ukuthi wonke amazwe azibophezele ukunciphisa ukukhishwa kwakho futhi usekele abasengozini kakhulu. Ngalo mqondo, kubalulekile ukunaka ukuthi kanjani amadolobha afana neNew York zihamba phambili ekulweni nalesi simo, zihola imizamo yomhlaba wonke yokulwa nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu.
Njengoba umhlaba uya esikhathini esizayo, kufanele sisebenzise indlela ebeka phambili ukusimama nokuhlonipha indawo yethu yemvelo. I-Anthropocene idinga ushintsho endleleni esiphila ngayo, esisebenza ngayo, nesihlobana ngayo neplanethi yethu. Ukuthathwa kwezinqumo okusekelwe kusayensi kanye nezimiso zemvelo kuzoba ukhiye ekunqobeni izinselele ezizayo.
Inselele esibhekene nayo inkulu kakhulu, kodwa ayinqobeki. Kuphela ngokuthatha isinyathelo esiphumelelayo nesihawukelayo lapho singaqinisekisa khona ikusasa lapho isintu neplanethi zingaphilisana khona ngokuzwana. Ukuvikela izinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo kanye nokubuyisela imvelo kuzobalulekile ekwakheni umhlaba osimeme wezizukulwane ezizayo.
Impela, i-Anthropocene ikhombisa inkathi yezinselelo ezinkulu namathuba. Umthwalo wemfanelo uphezu kwethu ngamunye ukuba senze okuthile ukuze kuzuze iplanethi nezizukulwane ezizayo.
