Njalo lapho kwenzeka isimo sezulu esibi, kungaba ukushisa, isiphepho noma isiphepho, Eminyakeni yamuva sizibuze okuningi mayelana nokuthi inabo yini ubudlelwano nokufudumala komhlaba. okwenzeka emhlabeni wethu. Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuyisihloko esithathe izintambo ku-ajenda yomhlaba wonke, futhi akumangalisi, ngoba lezi zenzakalo azithinti nje imvelo kuphela kodwa nempilo yomuntu, umnotho, kanye nemvelo.
Abacwaningi bebesebenza kanzima ukuze baxazulule ukuxhumana phakathi kokushintsha kwesimo sezulu okubangelwa abantu kanye nezimo zezulu ezimbi kakhulu esibhekana nazo ngokwanda kwemvamisa. Ngethemba lokunikeza impendulo eqondile yesayensi, ithimba eliholwa nguNoah Diffenbaugh, umcwaningi eSikoleni Somhlaba, Amandla Nezemvelo SaseStanford University, lihlanganise ukuhlaziywa kwezibalo zokubhekwa kwesimo sezulu namamodeli athuthukile wekhompyutha ukuze lifunde umthelela wokufudumala kwembulunga yonke ezenzakalweni zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu.
Ngokwesiko, ososayensi baye bagwema ukuxhumanisa izenzakalo zesimo sezulu ngabanye nokufudumala kwembulunga yonke, bakuthola kunzima ukuhlukanisa ithonya lezinto ezenziwa abantu nokuhlukahluka kwesimo sezulu esingokwemvelo. Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yentuthuko yesayensi, u-Diffenbaugh nethimba lakhe bakwazile ukunikeza impendulo eqinile embuzweni oye wadala isithakazelo esikhulu: Ingabe izimo zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu zibangelwa ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke? Ngokwesifundo esashicilelwe kulo magazini Izinqubo ze-National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), impendulo iphelele: Yebo, futhi ngokwandayo, njengoba izinga lokushisa emhlabeni wonke likhuphuka, kanjalo nezenzakalo ezimbi kakhulu ezibeka ukuphila kwabantu engozini.
Eqinisweni, Amathuba okuba kwenzeke izigigaba ezifudumele anyuke ngaphezu kuka-80% womhlaba lapho okuphawuliwe kuye kwaqoshwa khona.. Ngokulandelayo, ababhali bocwaningo bathole ukuthi ithonya labantu liye landisa amathuba okuba kube nezenzakalo ezomile nezimanzi cishe ingxenye yendawo lapho idatha ethembekile itholakala khona. Lokhu kusho ukuthi abantu baye bashintsha ibhalansi yemvelo ye-ecosystem yomhlaba, ehlobene ngokuqondile umsuka wokufudumala kwembulunga yonke futhi igcizelela umqondo wokuthi isimo sezulu esibi kakhulu siya sivame kakhulu.
Isayensi yesimo sezulu ibilokhu ivela njalo, futhi kuya ngokuya kusungulwa ukuxhumana okuqondile phakathi kwezenzo zethu nokuziphatha kwesimo sezulu. Ukuze uqonde ukuthi ungalwa kanjani nokufudumala komhlaba, kubalulekile ukuhlala unolwazi mayelana nokuvela kwezimo zesimo sezulu. Izehlakalo zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu njenge ukushisa kwamagagasi, izikhukhula, iziphepho kanye nesomiso zihlobene kakhulu nokufudumala kwembulunga yonke. Nakuba umphakathi wesayensi uye waqaphela ukuthi izenzakalo ezimbi bezilokhu zikhona emvelweni, ukufudumala kwembulunga kuye kwakhulisa ukuvama nokuqina kwazo.
I-Attribution of Global Warming
Ukuthuthuka kwesayensi yesimo sezulu kuye kwavumela abacwaningi ukuba bathuthukise izindlela eziyinkimbinkimbi zokutadisha incazelo yezehlakalo zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, kusetshenziswa amamodeli ezibalo nama-supercomputers hlaziya izehlakalo zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu ezingaphezu kuka-400 futhi inqume ukuthi ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kube nomthelela ongakanani ukuqina kanye nemvamisa yaso. Le mizamo ivumele ososayensi ukuthi banikeze ukuhlaziya okunembe kakhudlwana okuxhumanisa izinto ezenziwa abantu nezehlakalo ezithile zesimo sezulu, njengamagagasi okushisa noma izikhukhula, okuwukhiye engxoxweni mayelana ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nokufudumala kwembulunga yonke.
Isibonelo, ucwaningo olwenziwe yinhlangano engenzi nzuzo I-World Weather Attribution (WWA) yahlola igagasi lokushisa elihlasele eningizimu-ntshonalanga ye-United States futhi yathola ukuthi kwakunethuba eliphindwe kahlanu noma ngaphezulu ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu okubangelwa abantu. Lokhu kuwubufakazi obucacile bokuthi ukufudumala kwembulunga akukhulisi izinga lokushisa eliphakathi nje kuphela, kodwa futhi kuqinisa kakhulu izenzakalo ezithile.
Isazi sesimo sezulu u-Joyce Kimutai ugcizelele ukuthi inhloso yalolu cwaningo ukusiza umphakathi ukuthi uqonde ukuthi izenzo zethu zibe nomthelela kanjani ekushubeni kanye nokuvama kwezimo zezulu ezimbi kakhulu. Nakuba kungenakwenzeka ukusho ukuthi isenzakalo esithile sibangelwa ngokuqondile ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu, kuyenzeka ukubala izinga esishintshe ngalo ukuziphatha kwaso. Ukuqaphela lezi zinguquko kubalulekile ekuhleleni kahle izinhlekelele.
Izehlakalo Zesimo Sezulu Esidlulele kanye Nobudlelwano Bazo Nokufudumala Kwembulunga yonke
Izehlakalo zesimo sezulu eziyinkimbinkimbi, njengeziphepho nezikhukhula, zibangelwa izici ezihlukahlukene zemvelo, kuhlanganise nezinhlelo zokucindezela okuphezulu nokuphansi kanye nemifudlana ye-jet. Nokho, kuye kwafakazelwa ukuthi ukwanda kwezinga lokushisa lomoya nolwandle Kuyisici esibucayi esibhebhethekisa izinhlekelele eziningi zakamuva. Njengoba amazinga okushisa olwandle ekhuphuka, amandla engeziwe anikezwa iziphepho, okubangela ukuthi isiphepho sibe namandla. Lesi simo sihambisana nomqondo wokuthi imililo yehlathi izoba yingozi kakhulu, okwandisa ubunkimbinkimbi besimo sezulu esibi kakhulu.
Isibonelo esiyinhloko yilesi iziphepho eziye zacekela phansi ugu lwase-Atlantic eminyakeni yakamuva. Ukuhlola kuye kwathola ukuthi ingqikithi yemvula evela ezivunguvungwini eziyisithupha ezibhubhisa kakhulu, kuhlanganise uKatrina, i-Irma, neHarvey, yayinamandla ngokuphindwe kane kuya kwezingu-15 kunalokho ebekungaba khona ezweni elibandayo. Lokhu kuqina kweziphepho kuwukubonakaliswa okucacile kokuthi izenzo zabantu zikhulisa kanjani izinhlekelele zemvelo. Lokhu kwanda kokuqina kweziphepho kuyinto okufanele siyicabangele, ikakhulukazi uma sicubungula ukujwayela imiphakathi yethu nezimo zezulu kanye nengqalasizinda edingekayo ukubhekana nalezi zinselelo.
Njengoba kuqhubeka ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke, kulindeleke ukuthi izehlakalo zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu ziba njalo futhi zibe nzima, okubeka engcupheni enkulu empilweni yomuntu, ezolimo, nengqalasizinda kanye nomnotho womhlaba. Ukwazi umthelela wokufudumala kwembulunga yonke kusisiza ukuba silungiselele izinhlekelele zesikhathi esizayo futhi sithuthukise izindlela zokunciphisa ezifanele.
Ukushintsha Kwesimo Sezulu kanye Nezinhlekelele Zemvelo
Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu akuthinti nje kuphela izehlakalo zokushisa okukhulu, kodwa kunomthelela ezimvula ezinamandla ezibangela izikhukhula ezibhubhisayo. Ngemva kwezikhukhula ezibulalayo eziye zathinta iYurophu Ephakathi neChina, umphakathi wesayensi uyazibuza ukuthi ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kunento yokwenza nakho. Nakuba ukuthola inani eliqondile lalo mnikelo kunzima, Sekutholakele ukuthi izehlakalo zokuna kwemvula enamandla ziyanda ngokuvama nokushuba futhi ziyinkomba ecacile yezinguquko zesimo sezulu.
Ucwaningo oluqhubekayo lubhala imiphumela ehlobene nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu emiphakathini ethintekile futhi lithole ukuthi, isibonelo, ISiphepho uHarvey, esagadla e-Houston ngo-2017, saletha imvula engu-19% ngaphezu kwalokho obekungenzeka ngaphandle kokufudumala komhlaba.. Lokhu kuhumusha ezindaweni ezigcwele izikhukhula ngo-14% kanye nokwanda okukhulu kokulahlekelwa kwezomnotho, okufinyelele ku-$ 90,000 billion. Lezi zinombolo zigcizelela isidingo sokuxhumanisa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu nezinqubomgomo zokuhlela nezinhlekelele, ikakhulukazi uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi imiphakathi eminingi ibhekene nezinguquko ezinkulu endleleni yayo yokuphila ngenxa yemiphumela yokushisa komhlaba.
Ngakho-ke, izenzakalo ezimbi kakhulu ezihlobene nesimo sezulu zingaphezu nje kokudidaniswa; Ziwuphawu olucacile lwezinguquko ezibangelwa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu emhlabeni wethu. Ukuxhumana phakathi kwalezi zimo nokufudumala kwembulunga yonke kuba isihloko esibalulekile socwaningo, kufunwa amasu asebenzayo okulawula lezi zinselele. Ucwaningo ku imithelela yomoya ohlanzekile Iphinde igqamise ukuthi ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kuyithinta kanjani imvelo ehlukahlukene kanye nokuqina kwayo.
Ukuqonda ubudlelwano phakathi kokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nezimo zezulu ezimbi kakhulu kubalulekile, njengoba lokhu kunomthelela endleleni esilungiselela ngayo nesisabela ngayo kulezi zinhlekelele. Isayensi iye yanikeza izimpendulo ebezingaqinisekiswanga ngaphambili. Njengoba idatha iqhubeka nokunqwabelana kanye nezibonelo zesimo sezulu zithuthuka kakhulu, ukuqonda kwethu umthelela wokufudumala kwembulunga yonke esimweni sezulu kuzoqhubeka nokuvela. Ngenxa yalesi sizathu, kubalulekile ukuthi umphakathi wesayensi uqhubeke nokusebenza ku cinga izixazululo ezintsha ukulwa nokushisa komhlaba kanye nomthelela wako esimweni sezulu esibi kakhulu.
Ukwanda kwemvamisa yamagagasi okushisa, isomiso nezinhlekelele zemvelo Kuyisikhumbuzo sokuthi ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke akuyona inkinga yekusasa, kodwa inkinga esivele isithinta izigidi zabantu emhlabeni jikelele. Izinqumo esizenzayo namuhla zizoba nomthelela oqondile ekusaseni lesimo sezulu sethu kanye nempilo yeplanethi yethu.
Isidingo sezinqubomgomo ezisebenza kahle kakhulu zokunciphisa ukufudumala kwembulunga kufanele kube yinto ehamba phambili kubo bobabili ohulumeni nakubantu ngabanye. Kungale ndlela kuphela lapho singabhekana nezinselele ezilethwa isimo sezulu esibi kakhulu futhi sisebenzele ikusasa elisimeme lazo zonke izinhlobo zezinto eziphilayo emhlabeni.
